Recent NASA data shows 15cm sea level rise projected for Pacific islands in 30 years, threatening the very existence of island nations. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) sit at the frontline of the climate crisis.

Physical Threats to Island Nations' Existence

Sea Level Rise Impact:

• Tuvalu Island: Faces complete submersion with 72cm rise by 2100 under 3°C warming
• Maldives: 80% of land lies less than 1 meter above sea level
• Marshall Islands: King tides now flood homes and roads regularly
• Kiribati: Two uninhabited islets already disappeared underwater
• Solomon Islands: Five reef islands vanished due to rising seas and erosion

Coastal Erosion and Land Loss:

• Carteret Islands (Papua New Guinea): First climate refugees relocated in 2005
• Ghoramara Island (India): Lost 75% of landmass since 1969
• Isle de Jean Charles (Louisiana): Residents relocated by US government in 2016
• Taro Island (Solomon Islands): Provincial capital being relocated inland
• Shishmaref (Alaska): Entire community voted to relocate due to coastal erosion

Socio-Economic Impacts Threatening Existence

Population Displacement:

• 2016 UN report: Half of Kiribati households affected by sea level rise
• Tuvalu: Government exploring "migration with dignity" options
• Marshall Islands: Compact agreement with US for climate migration
• Vanuatu: 94% population vulnerable to climate disasters
• Fiji: Already relocated 6 villages, 676 more identified for relocation

Economic Devastation:

• Cyclone Kenneth (2019): Caused $188 million damage (16% of Mozambique's GDP)
• Hurricane Maria (2017): Puerto Rico faced 11-month blackout
• Tonga: Volcanic eruption and tsunami caused $90 million damage (18% of GDP)
• Barbados: Hurricane season costs average 4% of annual GDP
• Seychelles: Tourism sector (65% of GDP) threatened by coral bleaching

International Response and Adaptation Efforts

Financial Mechanisms:

• Green Climate Fund: $350 million allocated for SIDS projects (2024)
• Adaptation Fund: $1.39 billion approved for 2023-2027
• Loss and Damage Fund: Established at COP28 for vulnerable nations
• AOSIS: 44 island states advocating for 1.5°C temperature limit
• Pacific Island Forum: Regional cooperation for climate resilience

Sovereignty, migration & law

• Atoll nations (Tuvalu, Kiribati, Marshall Islands): Questions arise about statehood if territory becomes uninhabitable, and whether EEZ/continental shelf rights persist if baselines are submerged.
• Policy responses:
  1. “Migration with dignity” (Kiribati) and bilateral mobility pathways (e.g., Australia–Tuvalu “Falepili” arrangement) to secure planned, rights-based migration.
  2. Fixed maritime baselines proposals by Pacific states to preserve maritime zones despite SLR.
  3. Tuvalu’s “digital nation” initiative to safeguard governance, heritage and records if physical territory is lost.

The response must combine deep global mitigation, scaled and predictable adaptation & loss-and-damage finance, legal innovations to preserve sovereignty and maritime rights, and people-centred relocation pathways where in-place adaptation reaches its limits.