Model Answer

Introduction

The civil war in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began on 15 April 2023, has produced a severe humanitarian and economic crisis. The conflict has precipitated mass displacement, acute food insecurity and a sharp contraction of economic activity, pushing parts of the country into famine.

The fighting stems from a power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (RSF), centred on the contested integration of the RSF into the national army and competing political authority. RSF territorial gains—especially in Darfur and Kordofan—and its capacity to administer captured areas have intensified the conflict and complicated humanitarian access.

Humanitarian Impacts

1. Mass displacement

   • Over 9.8 million people were displaced by September 2025, making Sudan the largest and fastest-growing displacement crisis globally.
   • Large internal displacements and cross-border flows have overwhelmed host communities and humanitarian systems.

2. Mortality and civilian harm

   • Prolonged sieges and targeted violence have produced high civilian casualties. For example, El Fasher (North Darfur) fell after an 18-month siege, with reported deaths exceeding 1,400 between April 2023 and October 2025.
   • Incidents such as drone strikes with civilian casualties—including children—illustrate the grave protection concerns.

3. Food insecurity and famine

   • By September 2025, Sudan had entered famine conditions in parts of the country; at the highest level of food insecurity, 1% of the population was classified in the worst category.
   • Market disruptions and transport blockades caused extreme price inflation for staples: sorghum prices in Kadugli rose tenfold, and millet prices in El Fasher exceeded US$500 for 3.5 kg in 2025 — demonstrating both scarcity and loss of purchasing power.

4. Breakdown of health, education and services

   • Health facilities have been damaged or are inaccessible, undermining routine care and emergency response.
   • School closures, overwhelmed malnutrition clinics and sanitation breakdowns have increased morbidity and long-term developmental harms.

Economic Impacts

1. GDP contraction and macroeconomic collapse

   • Sudan’s economy contracted sharply: GDP fell by 29% in 2023–24, reflecting collapsed production, disrupted trade and loss of government revenue.
   • Currency depreciation, loss of investor confidence and banking disruptions further constrict economic activity.

2. Food systems and livelihoods

   • Agricultural cycles have been disrupted by displacement, insecurity and loss of inputs; farming, livestock rearing and local markets have been severely undermined.
   • The collapse of agricultural output and supply chains reduces food availability and raises prices, worsening real incomes — particularly for the poor and displaced.

3. Fiscal and external consequences

   • Declining government revenues and rising emergency spending constrain basic services and humanitarian response.
   • Trade and export channels (including gold and agricultural commodities) are disrupted, worsening balance-of-payments pressures.

Linkage: How Conflict Deepened Displacement & Food Insecurity

1. Disruption of supply routes and production

   • Territorial control and sieges have severed supply lines and agricultural zones, creating local scarcities and preventing food deliveries.

2. Market collapse and hyperinflation

   • Extreme inflation of staple prices reduces food access even where supplies exist.

3. Protection risks limiting humanitarian operations

   • Attacks on markets, blockades and insecurity restrict humanitarian agencies’ ability to reach affected populations.

4. Loss of livelihoods

   • Farmers, traders and pastoralists face widespread livelihood destruction, increasing dependency on aid and overstressing limited urban food markets.

Policy Measures and Strategic Priorities

1. Immediate humanitarian response

   • Negotiate and enforce humanitarian corridors, ceasefire windows and protection guarantees for large-scale food, medical and shelter assistance.
   • Scale up emergency food assistance (in-kind and cash), malnutrition treatment and vaccination campaigns.

2. Protection and civilian safety

   • Implement independent monitoring of civilian protection, with accountability mechanisms for violations.
   • Prioritise the safety of IDPs, children and health workers.

3. Stabilise food markets

   • Facilitate secure transport routes for staple cereals and use local procurement to reduce price spikes.
   • Support market functioning through cash assistance where feasible.

4. Economic stabilisation

   • Provide short-term liquidity and fiscal support for essential services.
   • Use international financial instruments conditioned on civilian protection and humanitarian access.

5. Political and diplomatic action

   • Renew diplomatic efforts — led by the UN, AU and regional actors — for an inclusive negotiated settlement and power-sharing arrangements to end major hostilities.

6. Medium-term recovery

   • Restore agriculture through seeds, inputs and livestock support.
   • Rehabilitate market infrastructure and invest in livelihoods for displaced communities and hosts.

Conclusion

The SAF–RSF war has produced a compound crisis in Sudan: rapid economic collapse, mass displacement and acute food insecurity — conditions that have already culminated in famine in parts of the country. Addressing the crisis requires a two-track approach: urgent, well-protected humanitarian access to save lives now, and a coordinated political and economic strategy to stabilise markets, restore livelihoods and pursue a durable political settlement. Without both, humanitarian relief will remain temporary and the risk of long-term state collapse and regional spillover will grow.