Subject: Environment & Ecology

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prediction of one-meter sea-level rise by 2100 presents a significant climate crisis, particularly threatening the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) with its densely populated coastal areas and vulnerable island nations.

Impact on India

Coastal Vulnerability:

• India's 7,500 km coastline faces severe threats from rising sea levels, affecting major coastal cities and communities.
• Mumbai, India's financial capital, is projected to experience a 76.2 cm sea level rise under medium-emission scenarios by 2100.
• Other vulnerable cities include Panaji, Udupi, Mangaluru, Kozhikode, Kochi, and Thiruvananthapuram.

Socio-Economic Implications:

• Potential displacement of 45 million Indians as climate migrants by 2050.
• Already witnessing significant climate-induced displacement with 4.5 million people displaced in 2023.
• Threats to coastal agriculture, fisheries, and tourism sectors affecting millions of livelihoods.

Environmental Concerns:

• Risk to coastal ecosystems including mangroves, coral reefs, and marine biodiversity.
• Saltwater intrusion threatening freshwater aquifers and agricultural lands.
• Increased frequency of extreme weather events and coastal erosion.

Impact on Indian Ocean Region Countries

Economic Vulnerabilities:

• Significant threats to the Blue Economy initiatives of IORA member states.
• Reduced agricultural productivity and fisheries output affecting food security.
• Impact on tourism-dependent economies, particularly in island nations.

Social Implications:

• Rising climate migration with 19 million international migrants from IORA member states (2019 data).
• Disproportionate impact on vulnerable populations, with 43% women among migrants.
• Strain on urban infrastructure and services in coastal cities.

Environmental Challenges:

• Loss of critical coastal habitats and biodiversity.
• Increased vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surges.
• Threat to low-lying island nations facing existential risks.

India's response through the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and its National Coastal Mission demonstrates proactive adaptation measures, but requires enhanced regional cooperation through platforms like IORA to address this transboundary challenge effectively.