Subject: International Relations

The South China Sea (SCS) dispute has emerged as a critical flashpoint in Indo-Pacific geopolitics, with implications for regional stability and maritime security. The increasing assertiveness of China in the region has led to heightened tensions, affecting bilateral relations between India and China across multiple dimensions.

Maritime Security and Strategic Concerns

• India's strategic interests in freedom of navigation and maritime security are challenged by China's expansionist policies in the SCS (e.g., artificial island construction and militarization).
• India has strengthened maritime cooperation through initiatives like the ASEAN-India Maritime Exercise (AIME 2023) and deployment of warships (INS Delhi, INS Shakti, and INS Kiltan) for exercises with friendly nations.
• India's partnership with regional stakeholders, exemplified by the 2023 India-Singapore joint naval exercises featuring submarine deployments, demonstrates its commitment to maritime security.

Territorial Disputes and Border Issues

• The ongoing border tensions, particularly in Eastern Ladakh, reflect deeper strategic competition between the two Asian giants.
• Despite the 2024 de-escalation agreement, sporadic border clashes are expected to continue in regions like Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, and Sikkim through 2025.
• India's support for the Philippines' sovereignty and the 2016 International Court of Justice ruling indicates its commitment to a rules-based maritime order.

Economic Interdependence and Trade Relations

• Bilateral trade reached a record US$136.2 billion in 2023, showing a 1.5% increase despite geopolitical tensions.
• Indian exports to China grew by 6%, highlighting the complex nature of economic interdependence.
• The October 2024 agreement has created opportunities for resetting economic ties while managing security concerns.

Strategic Response and Way Forward

• India's "Act East Policy" and engagement with ASEAN nations serves as a counterbalance to Chinese influence.
• Enhanced maritime cooperation through bilateral and multilateral exercises strengthens India's position in the region.
• Development of strategic infrastructure and military capabilities along the border regions reinforces India's defensive posture.

The relationship between India and China remains characterized by both cooperation and competition, requiring a balanced approach that safeguards national interests while maintaining economic engagement. The success of initiatives like "Make in India" and strategic partnerships with regional allies will be crucial in managing this complex bilateral relationship.