Subject: Physical Geography

The occurrence of El Niño, a complex oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon characterized by warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, has indeed been linked to various unusual climatic events globally, though it's not the sole factor behind all weather anomalies.

Impact of El Niño on Global Climate

• Temperature Variations: The 2023-24 El Niño, being among the five strongest on record, triggered extreme weather conditions globally, including 536 heatwave days in India during summer 2024.

• Rainfall Patterns:

  • Causes significant alterations in precipitation patterns across regions.
  • The IMD's forecast for 2025 southwest monsoon predicts 105% of long-period average despite neutral El Niño conditions.
  • Creates drought conditions in some regions while causing excessive rainfall in others.

Other Contributing Factors

• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD):

  • Acts independently and in conjunction with El Niño.
  • Influences monsoon patterns and rainfall distribution across the Indian subcontinent.

• Eurasian Snow Cover:

  • Below-normal snow cover affects regional temperature and pressure systems.
  • Impacts the strength and timing of monsoon circulation.

Economic Implications

• Agricultural Impact:
  • Despite El Niño's influence, India's agricultural sector has shown resilience.
  • The IMF report indicates reduced impact on GDP due to:
    • Declining share of agriculture in GDP.
    • Increased irrigation coverage.
    • Diversification of crop patterns.

Regional Variations

• Spatial Distribution:
  • Some regions like Tamil Nadu and northeastern states experience below-average rainfall.
  • 37 cities recorded temperatures exceeding 45°C in May 2024.

The unusual climatic happenings cannot be attributed solely to El Niño, as evidenced by the complex interplay of various atmospheric and oceanic factors. While El Niño remains a significant driver of global climate variations, other phenomena like IOD, global warming, and regional pressure systems play crucial roles in shaping weather patterns.