Model Answer

Introduction

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that the 2025 southwest monsoon ended with an 8% surplus, the fifth wettest since 2001, with delayed withdrawal extending rainfall into October. The monsoon, a seasonal reversal of winds, is the lifeline of Indian agriculture and water resources. Such shifts in its timing and intensity, influenced by factors like ENSO and La Niña, have wide-ranging implications for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.

Body

Agriculture — opportunities & risks

1. Short-term opportunity: improved soil moisture, replenished reservoirs and groundwater, and a favourable moisture base for late Kharif and early Rabi preparations — supporting higher Kharif acreage and foodgrain prospects.
2. Short-term risks: extended/waterlogged fields, delayed harvesting (paddy), lodging, fungal pests and post-harvest losses; heavy October showers can damage standing summer crops and delay sowing of winter crops.
3. Water management – supply, operations, equity
   • Benefits: higher reservoir inflows can restore irrigation and hydropower buffers and improve drinking-water security if captured.
   • Risks: unplanned/forced dam releases may cause downstream floods; inter-state coordination, real-time inflow forecasting and dynamic reservoir operation are essential to convert excess runoff into usable storage rather than losses.
4. Disaster preparedness & public health
   • Increased flood, urban inundation, landslide and infrastructure damage risk from intense spells; prolonged humidity raises vector-borne disease risk.
   • Requires strengthened early-warning dissemination, district contingency plans, pre-positioned NDRF/SDRF resources, rapid crop-loss assessment and expedited insurance payouts to protect farmer incomes.
5. Climate driver & outlook
   • IMD/WMO/NOAA outlooks indicate a transition toward a weak La Niña/ENSO-neutral → La Niña window in the coming months, which can favour above-normal rainfall over parts of India – but forecasts remain probabilistic and short-lived. Integrating ENSO guidance into seasonal advisories will improve preparedness.

Conclusion/Way Forward

Short term: targeted advisories for staggered harvesting, rapid pest surveillance, controlled reservoir releases with downstream alerts, fast-track PMFBY claims, and public-health preparedness.

Medium-long term: climate-resilient agriculture (crop diversification, stress-tolerant varieties, improved drainage), watershed and groundwater recharge, modernised reservoir operation driven by real-time forecasts, stronger urban drainage and nature-based flood mitigation, and investments in ag-climate services and seasonal forecasting.