Model Answer

Recurring tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, including recent cross-border airstrikes, highlight the fragility of the Af-Pak region. The instability has significant implications for India's security, connectivity and regional strategy.

Impact on India's security

1. Cross-border terrorism may intensify, creating space for extremist groups. e.g.: ISKP, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other terror networks.
2. Greater regional instability could increase the risk of radicalisation and illicit arms trafficking.
3. Refugee and humanitarian crises may place pressure on neighbouring countries, affecting regional security.

Impact on India's strategic interests

1. Connectivity initiatives may suffer. e.g.: Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) depend on a stable Afghanistan.
2. Reduced developmental engagement may weaken India's long-standing goodwill in Afghanistan. e.g.: Salma Dam and the Afghan Parliament.
3. Strategic competition may intensify, with greater involvement of China through the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and regional diplomacy.

India's policy response

1. Strengthen regional diplomacy through platforms such as the SCO and the Moscow Format.
2. Enhance counter-terrorism cooperation with regional partners through intelligence sharing and capacity building.
3. Continue humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people while maintaining a calibrated engagement with the Taliban regime.

A stable Afghanistan is vital for India's security and regional connectivity. India's approach must combine strategic patience, counter-terrorism preparedness and sustained regional engagement to safeguard its long-term interests.