Subject: International Relations

Recent political developments in Maldives have brought significant shifts in India-Maldives relations, marking a period of diplomatic challenges and strategic realignments in the Indian Ocean Region.

Recent Political Developments in Maldives

• Presidential Elections 2023: Mohamed Muizzu won with 54% votes, defeating incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, marking the fourth consecutive time a Maldivian president failed to secure re-election.

• Anti-India Stance:

  • The new government's "India Out" campaign gained momentum, leading to demands for removal of Indian military personnel.
  • Diplomatic tensions escalated due to derogatory remarks against India by Maldivian ministers, resulting in their suspension.

• Pro-China Tilt:

  • President Muizzu's first state visit to Beijing in 2024 resulted in signing of multiple agreements.
  • Enhanced cooperation with China in infrastructure and economic sectors signaled a strategic pivot.

Concerns for India

• Strategic Implications:

  • Potential disruption of India's maritime security framework in the Indian Ocean Region.
  • Risk to India's traditional role as net security provider in the region.

• Military Cooperation:

  • Uncertainty over joint military exercises like 'Ekuverin' which enhance interoperability between forces.
  • Concerns over the future of Indian military presence in Maldives.

• Economic Impact:

  • Decline in Indian tourism following diplomatic tensions.
  • Potential challenges to Indian investments and development projects.

Way Forward

• Diplomatic Engagement:

  • Focus on rebuilding trust through high-level diplomatic dialogue.
  • Continuation of economic cooperation including currency swap arrangements.

• Regional Security:

  • Strengthen multilateral frameworks like Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA).
  • Enhance maritime cooperation with other regional partners.

The evolving situation in Maldives demands India's careful attention and strategic response, balancing between asserting its legitimate interests and maintaining cooperative relations with a crucial maritime neighbor. India must leverage its "Neighborhood First" policy and historical ties to navigate these challenges while ensuring regional stability and security.