Model Answer

The Southwest Monsoon provides over 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is influenced by complex ocean-atmosphere interactions. In 2026, India received about 12.6% below-normal monsoon rainfall, highlighting its considerable variability.

Causes of Monsoon Variability

1. El Niño weakens monsoon circulation by warming the equatorial Pacific Ocean. e.g: El Niño influenced the deficient 2026 monsoon.
2. Indian Ocean Dipole can strengthen or weaken rainfall depending on sea-surface temperature differences.
3. Monsoon depressions determine the frequency and spatial distribution of rainfall.
4. Himalayan snow cover influences land heating and monsoon circulation.
5. Jet streams affect the onset, withdrawal and movement of monsoon systems.
6. Climate change increases rainfall variability and extreme dry-wet spells.

Impacts of a Deficient Monsoon

1. Agriculture suffers, particularly in rain-fed regions. e.g: Paddy, cotton and maize were affected in 2026.
2. Reservoir levels decline, reducing irrigation and drinking-water availability.
3. Groundwater stress increases as farmers depend more on tube-well irrigation.
4. Hydropower generation may decline due to lower reservoir inflows.
5. Food inflation may increase when lower yields affect agricultural supply.
6. Rural incomes and demand weaken due to reduced farm production.

Way Forward

1. Expand micro-irrigation and drought-resistant crop varieties.
2. Improve water harvesting, watershed management and groundwater recharge.
3. Strengthen IMD forecasting and climate-resilient agricultural planning.

Monsoon variability is a natural feature of India’s climate, but climate change is increasing associated risks. Building resilient agriculture and efficient water management can reduce dependence on favourable rainfall.