Israel-Iran War: Historical Background, Challenges and Implications

The Iran-Israel conflict has intensified as Israel, backed by the U.S., launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites following reported IAEA violations. This escalation has raised serious concerns over regional stability and global security. 

Why Cover This Topic for UPSC?

• Directly linked to GS paper topics (IR, Security, Current Affairs)
• Frequently asked in UPSC Mains and Interview
• Enhances analytical depth on India’s foreign policy
• Relevant for Prelims factual MCQs

Israel has launched a full-scale military attack on Iran, called “Operation Rising Lion.” This strike mainly targets Iran’s missile sites and nuclear facilities. The action comes soon after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that Iran has violated the 1974 Nuclear Safeguards Agreement by producing enriched uranium at undeclared sites.

In retaliation, Iran launched multiple waves of ballistic missiles targeting Israel under “Operation True Promise 3”, resulting in explosions across key cities like Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. This event has increased tensions in West Asia and raised global concerns about peace and security. 

Here are the major reasons behind the current escalation:

1. Breakdown of Nuclear Talks: The talks between the US and Iran to revive the nuclear deal failed. Israel saw this as Iran trying to use diplomacy as a delay tactic while secretly advancing its nuclear program.

2. Shift to Direct Military Action: Israel believes that indirect attacks through proxy groups (like Hezbollah or Hamas) were no longer effective. Amid rising hostilities, Israel initiated targeted action against Iranian sites, citing the need to protect national security.

3. Internal Politics in Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been accused of using rising tensions with Iran to shift public focus and delay political challenges, such as elections or protests against his government.

To fully understand the recent military strike, let’s comprehend the long and complex history between Iran and Israel.

The conflict between Iran and Israel has deep roots, shaped by political shifts, religious ideologies, proxy wars, and nuclear ambitions. The relationship took a sharp turn after the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, and since then, tensions have only grown due to mutual distrust and strategic rivalries in the region.

Timeline of Key Events:

• Pre-1979:
  • Iran and Israel had relatively friendly ties under the Shah of Iran.
  • Both countries shared concerns over Arab nationalism.
• 1979 – Islamic Revolution in Iran:
  • Iran became an Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini.
  • Adopted a strong anti-Israel stance, calling for its elimination.
  • Cut all diplomatic ties with Israel.
• 1980s – Rise of Proxy Groups:
  • Iran began supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon (founded in 1985) and later Hamas in Gaza.
  • These groups launched attacks against Israel, often with Iranian funding and weapons.
• 2000s – Nuclear Ambitions Rise:
  • Iran’s nuclear program gained global attention.
  • Israel viewed it as an existential threat and began advocating for strong international action.
• 2007 – Israel Bombs Syrian Nuclear Reactor:
  • Demonstrated Israel’s willingness to strike suspected nuclear sites in the region.
• 2010–2020 – Covert Conflict Intensifies:
  • A series of cyberattacks (e.g., Stuxnet), assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, and sabotage operations.
  • Iran responds with proxy attacks via militias and groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah.
• 2020 – Abraham Accords:
  • Israel normalizes relations with several Arab states (UAE, Bahrain, etc.).
  • Iran sees this as a threat and has increased its anti-Israel rhetoric and activities.
• 2021–2023 – Shadow War Turns Hotter:
  • Attacks on Israeli ships, drone strikes, and continued nuclear enrichment by Iran.
  • Israel accuses Iran of nearing nuclear weapon capability.
• 2024 – IAEA Declares Iran in Violation:
  • Sparks global concern and sets the stage for direct action.

The ongoing military conflict between Iran and Israel is not just a regional issue; it carries serious global, regional, and strategic consequences. Let’s understand these implications. 

The conflict between Iran and Israel has wide-ranging impacts. It is affecting the whole world, from rising oil prices to strained international relations. Below are the global as well as regional implications of the Iran-Israel War.

Global Ramifications of the War  

1. Energy Market Volatility: The Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route, sees nearly 20% of the world’s oil trade pass through it. Any disruption here due to the war can cause sharp spikes in global oil prices, fuel inflation, and lead to economic instability worldwide.

2. Strategic Dilemma for the United States: The U.S., a strong ally of Israel, faces a tough balancing act. It must support Israel while avoiding being drawn into a full-scale regional war, especially with its military bases and assets spread across the Middle East.

3. Nuclear Proliferation Threats: Withdrawal of Iran from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in response to attacks may trigger a nuclear arms race in West Asia. It may undermine decades of global non-proliferation efforts.

4. Increased Global Polarisation: The conflict could worsen divisions among major powers such as the U.S., Russia, and China, and create a more fragmented global diplomatic order.

Regional Challenges in West Asia

1. Wider Regional Escalation: The conflict risks spilling over into neighboring countries like Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, where Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah and PMF are active. This could turn local tensions into a multi-front regional war.

2. Drone and Proxy Warfare Intensifies: Use of drones, cyberattacks, and asymmetric tactics may increase across the region, making conflicts harder to control and predict.

3. Collapse of Diplomatic Efforts: Ongoing talks such as the revival of the Iran nuclear deal and Israel-Arab peace processes under the Abraham Accords or two-state solution efforts may be derailed due to rising mistrust and aggression.

4. Militant Mobilisation: Groups like the Houthis, Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and other Iran-linked militias may target Israeli and U.S. interests in the region, increasing instability.

The escalating Iran–Israel conflict holds significant strategic and economic implications. Here are the wider implications for India:

1. Safety of Indian Diaspora: With over 8 million Indians living in West Asia, any expansion of conflict poses a serious humanitarian and evacuation challenge for the Indian government.

2. Energy Security Risks: India imports more than 60% of its crude oil from the Gulf region. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to oil shortages, rising fuel prices, and pressure on the Indian economy.

3. Geopolitical Balancing Act: India has strong ties with both Iran (for energy and connectivity projects) and Israel (for defence and tech cooperation). Handling this crisis without hurting either relationship will require smart diplomacy.

4. Impact on Strategic Projects: Key regional projects like the Chabahar Port in Iran and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) may face delays or geopolitical hurdles.

5. Increased Pressure at the UN and Global Forums: India may face growing pressure to take a stand or mediate, especially if the conflict worsens and global humanitarian concerns rise.

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Moving forward, let's examine the subsequent developments and how the United States is facilitating the implementation of the ceasefire on the ground.

U.S. President Donald Trump has brokered a 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. This strategy is expected to ease broader tensions. The U.S. will collaborate with Qatar and Egypt to deliver the proposal to Hamas, urging them to accept promptly. Trump has warned that refusal could worsen regional stability. 

• Israel’s Position: Israel has officially agreed to the terms, which include releasing hostages and significantly scaling back military operations.
• Hamas’ Response: Open to ceasefire in principle, but demands a full end to the war and Israeli troop withdrawal.
• U.S. Involvement: The proposal marks a strong return of U.S. diplomatic engagement in West Asia, using strategic leverage to contain both Israel-Iran and Israel-Hamas hostilities.
• Humanitarian Angle: Ceasefire expected to facilitate humanitarian aid and prevent civilian casualties, though skepticism remains about its durability

The ceasefire offers a strategic breather for India, allowing it to focus on diplomatic ties with both Israel and Iran. Moreover, reduced regional tensions are crucial for uninterrupted oil supplies and the safety of Indian nationals in the Gulf region.

Also cover this important topic: Revitalizing India’s Nuclear Energy Sector: Challenges, Opportunities & Reforms

To reduce tensions and restore regional stability, the following steps can be considered:

• Promote Dialogue & Diplomacy: Encourage sustained talks through neutral mediators or UN-backed platforms.
• Revive the Two-State Solution: A fair resolution to the Israel–Palestine issue can reduce wider regional hostility.
• Recommit to JCPOA: Iran’s return to the nuclear deal can restore trust and prevent proliferation.
• Boost Regional Cooperation: Include all stakeholders, including Iran, in regional peace and trade frameworks.
• Employ India’s Neutral Role: India can act as a balanced voice for peace, given its ties with both nations.
• Dismantle Proxy Networks: Global powers must work to curb non-state actors fueling the conflict.

These steps offer a constructive path toward peace and long-term stability in West Asia.

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