El Niño, Iran sharpen food prices challenge, Pg12

Key Highlights:

• India's southwest monsoon recorded a 39.8% deficit in June, marking it the fifth lowest rainfall for the month.
• The India Meteorological Department forecasts "below normal" rainfall for July, exacerbating concerns.
• The El Niño phenomenon is currently in a moderate phase and is predicted to intensify to "strong" during the latter half of the monsoon season, potentially becoming "very strong" from October to January.
• This climatic event is expected to negatively impact both kharif and rabi crops, including wheat, mustard, chana, masoor, and potato.
• The previous "strong" El Niño event in 2023-24 led to an average retail food inflation exceeding 8.5% between July 2023 and December 2024.
• The government's Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana and the newly enacted Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) Act, 2025 (replacing MGNREGA) will be crucial in mitigating the impact.

ElNino and Monsoon.png

Detailed Insights:

• The cumulative rainfall deficit for the season has narrowed to 24.1% as of July 5, with the monsoon covering approximately 95% of the country's area.
• Despite the recent revival, sowing acreages for kharif crops like oilseeds, pulses, and cotton were significantly lower compared to the previous year.
• An intensified El Niño could lead to a shorter and warmer winter, affecting rabi crop yields due to suppressed rainfall and higher temperatures.
• India's substantial imports of vegetable oils (16.9 million tonnes in 2025-26) and pulses (7.3 million tonnes in 2024-25) highlight the country's vulnerability to domestic production shortfalls.
• Proactive supply-side management, including keeping import windows open, is essential to prevent a repeat of protracted food price inflation.
• Ensuring Minimum Support Prices for pulses, oilseeds, millets, and cotton through difference payments can incentivize farmers to cultivate these less water-intensive crops.
• Effective implementation of crop insurance and rural employment schemes is vital for stabilizing farmer incomes and controlling food inflation.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: A climate pattern characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, impacting global weather patterns and often leading to droughts in India.
• Kharif Crops: Monsoon crops sown at the beginning of the southwest monsoon (June-July) and harvested in September-October, requiring warm, wet conditions and significant rainfall.
• Rabi Crops: Winter crops sown after the monsoon (October-December) and harvested in spring (March-April), requiring cooler temperatures and less water, often relying on irrigation.
• Minimum Support Price (MSP): A minimum price set by the government for certain crops to protect farmers from market price fluctuations and ensure a remunerative return.
• Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY): A government-sponsored crop insurance scheme launched in 2016 to provide financial support to farmers against crop losses due to unforeseen events.
• Viksit Bharat-Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) Act, 2025: A new rural employment scheme that replaced the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), aiming to provide guaranteed wage employment.
• India Meteorological Department (IMD): The national meteorological service of India, responsible for weather forecasting, meteorological observations, and seismology under the Ministry of Earth Sciences.