How India should respond to green card crackdown, Pg9

Key Highlights:

• New H-1B visa approvals for major Indian IT firms (TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL, Cognizant) dropped by 84% from 15,919 in FY2016 to 2,486 in FY2023.
• Indians received 51-58% of all PERM certifications annually from 2015 to 2023.
• As of June 2026, 356,360 approved Indian EB-2 petitions were awaiting visas, with India receiving only 3,916 EB-2 green cards in FY2024.
• US unemployment in computer and mathematics occupations rose from 1.9% in 2022 to 3.3% in 2025.
• Employment at Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India increased from 1.9 million in FY2024 to 2.36 million in FY2026.
• India's Ministry of External Affairs stated that the US suspension of the PERM program does not advance the shared ambitions of both countries.

Detailed Insights:

• While Indian IT firms saw a decline in H-1B approvals, US tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google experienced an increase from 2,800 to 7,000 approvals in the same period.
• The US labor market anxiety stems from rising tech unemployment and a 60% drop in software job postings from their 2022 peak.
• Restricting foreign workers may not guarantee jobs for Americans, as firms can shift work offshore; Microsoft and Adobe have substantial operations in India.
• Reduced prospects for permanent settlement in the US could lead skilled workers to seek opportunities in other countries or with employers offering greater security.
• The shift of work to India is evident, with Cognizant's Indian workforce growing while its North American workforce shrank.
• Despite increased offshore work, net technology hiring in India fell from 445,000 in FY2022 to 60,000-135,000 annually thereafter, partly due to AI adoption.
• A survey of 65 IT firms showed 63.5% cut hiring after adopting AI, with 55% reducing entry-level employment.
• India's graduate unemployment stood at 11.2% in 2025, highlighting a mismatch between available talent and industry demand for experienced workers.
• The US supplied 22.7% of India's $118.7 billion in remittances in 2023-24, and fewer Indians settling there could impact future remittance growth.
• India's strategic response should focus on attracting higher-value work through effective GCC policies, predictable data-transfer-pricing rules, and upskilling experienced workers in AI.
• The US Department of Labor suspended several major IT firms, including Indian companies, from the PERM program, impacting the green card process.
• The PERM suspension does not affect the validity of existing H-1B visas but could delay the permanent residency pathway for affected employees.

Key Concepts Involved:

• H-1B Visa: A non-immigrant visa that allows US employers to temporarily employ foreign workers in specialty occupations.
• PERM Certification: Program Electronic Review Management, a labor certification process required for most employment-based green card applications in the US.
• EB-2 Visa: An employment-based, second-preference immigrant visa category for professionals holding advanced degrees or individuals with exceptional ability.
• Global Capability Centers (GCCs): Wholly-owned, captive units of multinational corporations operating in countries like India, providing in-house services and strategic functions.