US withdrawal leaves Iraq facing a new contest for power, Pg15

Key Highlights:

• The United States completed the withdrawal of its troops from Iraq on September 30, 2026, ending a 12-year mission against ISIS.
• The withdrawal was celebrated by the US as a victory over ISIS, by Iraq as a restoration of national sovereignty, and by Iran as the expulsion of US forces.
• US forces initially intervened in Iraq in 2003 to remove Saddam Hussein and returned in 2014 under Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) to combat ISIS.
• The withdrawal followed a two-phase transition agreement made in September 2024, with major US bases largely vacated by September 2025.
• Post-withdrawal, Iraq faces challenges including potential ISIS resurgence, internal power struggles between Iran-aligned and nationalist factions, and asserting state control over armed groups.

Detailed Insights:

• The US withdrawal in 2011 led to internal instability, contributing to the rise of ISIS which seized over a third of Iraq and Syria.
• CJTF-OIR transitioned from combat operations to advising and training Iraqi armed forces after the territorial defeat of ISIS by 2017.
• The final departure of US troops from Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish Region, marked the conclusion of the withdrawal.
• Iraq now experiences periodic security breaches by ISIS due to the absence of continuous US intelligence support.
• The risk of a Sunni-Shia sectarian civil war is currently lower than 15 years ago, with the Shia majority consolidating its dominance.
• Domestic instability is primarily driven by the ideological and strategic rivalry between Iran-aligned loyalists and rival nationalist factions.
• Iraq's failure to establish a true state monopoly over arms allows Tehran to maintain significant leverage over its political and security landscape.
• The Iraqi government faces an existential test to assert control over armed paramilitary factions, resist Iranian overreach, and preserve its federal compact.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Sovereignty: The supreme authority of a state over its territory and internal affairs, free from external control.
• Sectarian Civil War: A prolonged armed conflict within a state, primarily fueled by deep divisions between different religious or ethnic groups.
• State Monopoly over Arms: The exclusive right of the state to legitimately possess and control all means of force within its borders.
• Federal Compact: An agreement defining the distribution of powers and responsibilities between a central government and its constituent regional units.