El Niño emerges in Pacific Ocean, to intensify during SW monsoon: IMD, Pg8

Key Highlights:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the emergence of the El Niño phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• El Niño is projected to strengthen during the ongoing southwest monsoon season, influencing global weather patterns.
• The US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed El Niño's emergence and predicted it to reach a "very strong" category (sea surface temperature along the Niño 3.4 region surpassing 2°C) peaking between November 2026 and January 2027.
• The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for India's monsoon season, expecting a 10 percent shortfall from the normal country-wide seasonal rainfall.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is anticipated to remain in its neutral phase during the southwest monsoon season.

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Detailed Insights:

• El Niño is characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, off the northwestern coast of South America.
• This phenomenon typically suppresses rainfall over the Indian region and can cause various global weather impacts.
• The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring ocean-atmospheric phenomenon with three phases: warm (El Niño), neutral, and cool (La Niña).
• An El Niño is declared when the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region surpasses 0.50°C above normal.
• El Niño events can last from a few months up to two years, with their peak generally coinciding with the Northern Hemisphere winter season.
• Historically, many El Niño years have led to subdued monsoon rainfall and increased temperatures across India.
• Except for northeastern and extreme southern India, all other geographical regions are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during June-September this year.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), India's Indian Ocean counterpart to El Niño, also has positive, neutral, and negative phases, influencing regional weather.
• A positive IOD can sometimes mitigate the negative effects of El Niño on the Indian monsoon, while a negative IOD can exacerbate them.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: The warm phase of the ENSO, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• La Niña: The cool phase of the ENSO, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A recurring climate pattern involving fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the equatorial Pacific, influencing global weather.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): An ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean defined by differences in sea surface temperatures between its western and eastern parts.
• Niño 3.4 Region: A specific area in the equatorial Pacific (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) used to monitor and define the phases of ENSO based on sea surface temperature anomalies.