IMD unveils ‘block-level’ monsoon forecast model, Pg12

Key Highlights:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) launched a new forecast system on Tuesday to provide block-level monsoon forecasts for 15 states.
• The system covers approximately 3,196 blocks, about half of India’s 7,200 blocks.
• The new system uses AI-based analysis, a century of meteorological data, and global weather models to predict the monsoon's progress.
• The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare requested the development of this system to improve the timing of sowing for farmers.
• The forecast system will provide probabilistic forecasts for four weeks, blending predictions from two forecasting models.
• The IMD also launched a monsoon forecast model for Uttar Pradesh with a 1-km resolution, valid for 10 days.

Detailed Insights:

• The IMD aims to provide hyper-local forecasts to address the variation of monsoon rainfall within districts, enabling precise sowing times for farmers.
• The forecasting models' predictions are blended to enhance accuracy, utilizing data from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
• The current system focuses on the monsoon core zone, which includes regions heavily reliant on rainfed agriculture and sensitive to southwest monsoon patterns.
• Expansion of the system to cover all of India requires more observational data from other states.
• The system will face challenges due to expectations of below-normal rainfall caused by a developing El Nino phenomenon.
• The Uttar Pradesh model was downscaled to 1 km resolution due to the state's extensive network of automatic weather stations.
• The Mithuna weather model, which operates at a 12.5-km resolution, was used to generate the higher-resolution forecast for Uttar Pradesh.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Monsoon Core Zone: Regions that are largely rainfed and are most sensitive to southwest monsoon dynamics.
• El Nino: A climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
• Automatic Weather Station: An automated platform, typically solar powered, that measures meteorological parameters and transmits data in real-time.