India-Myanmar ties will remain limited, Pg12

Key Highlights:

• Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's President, undertook a five-day official visit to India from May 30 to June 3, 2026, marking a notable shift in India's engagement strategy.
• India moved from a "wait-and-watch" approach to direct engagement with the administration in Naypyidaw, driven by strategic, security, and economic interests.
• Myanmar sought to diversify its foreign policy, reduce reliance on China, and address its severe economic crisis, including high inflation and widespread poverty.
• India's motivations included addressing rising refugee flows, cross-border insurgency, and illicit trafficking networks along its 1,643 km border with Myanmar.
• The visit saw no major agreements or significant Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs), indicating India's cautious approach due to Myanmar's ongoing internal conflict and political uncertainties.
• India aims to balance Chinese influence in its immediate neighborhood through deeper engagement with Myanmar.

Detailed Insights:

• The visit by Min Aung Hlaing, who assumed the presidency after the 2021 military coup and subsequent elections, aimed to project a degree of political normalization for Myanmar's military government.
• Myanmar's economy has been in a "polycrisis" since the coup, with its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracting by 9% since 2020, and inflation reaching 25.4% in 2024.
• Nearly half of Myanmar's population lives below the poverty line, exacerbated by currency devaluation and crumbling essential services.
• China maintains a long-standing "Pauk-Phaw" relationship with Myanmar, providing substantial political, economic, and military support, making it Myanmar's most significant external partner.
• India's Act East Policy relies heavily on Myanmar as a crucial land bridge to Southeast Asia, with key connectivity projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project facing delays.
• The porous India-Myanmar border, shared by four northeastern states, presents significant security challenges including drug and arms trafficking, and the influx of refugees, particularly impacting Manipur.
• India's engagement remains pragmatic and limited in scope, as it is neither willing nor positioned to match China's extensive support to Myanmar.
• Authority in Myanmar is increasingly fragmented beyond Naypyidaw, with ethnic armed organizations and resistance groups controlling significant border areas, complicating India's regional connectivity goals.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Act East Policy: India's foreign policy initiative launched in 2014 to strengthen economic, strategic, and cultural ties with Southeast Asian and East Asian countries.
• Pauk-Phaw Relationship: A Burmese term meaning "kinsfolk" or "sibling," used to describe the special, often asymmetric, relationship between China and Myanmar.
• Non-traditional Security Threats: Challenges that are not purely military, encompassing issues like refugee movements, illicit trafficking, and cross-border insurgencies.