‘El Nino set to dent India’s wind, hydropower output’, Pg14

Key Highlights:

• The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) projects that El Nino conditions could lead to an 18 TWh generation gap in India's power sector over one year until June 2027.
• This shortfall is attributed to weaker wind and hydropower output combined with increased demand for air conditioning.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed El Nino conditions and forecast below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
• The projected gap, though less than 1% of India's total electricity generation, is likely to be filled by increased coal-fired power, potentially releasing 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.
• India's non-fossil installed capacity reached 283.46 GW as of March 31, with significant additions in solar and wind in 2025-26.

Detailed Insights:

• The CREA analysis highlights India's particular vulnerability to El Nino compared to other nations due to its energy mix and demand patterns.
• The projected generation gap of 17.7 TWh (median) to 24 TWh (most severe) underscores the challenge of balancing energy demand with clean energy goals.
• The IMD's forecast of a deficient monsoon season, with June rainfall at a 40% deficit, directly impacts hydropower generation.
• Despite record non-fossil capacity additions, coal remains the largest single source, accounting for about 42% of installed capacity.
• The report suggests that better energy storage solutions, such as batteries, could have averted curtailment of 2.1 TWh of solar and wind last year.
• India's plan to add around 130 GW of new coal capacity aims to provide on-demand power and buffer against peak demand surges.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Nino: A climate pattern describing unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, impacting global weather.
• Terawatt-hour (TWh): A unit of energy equal to one trillion (10^12) watt-hours, commonly used for large-scale electricity generation.
• Gigawatt (GW): A unit of power equal to one billion (10^9) watts, often used to measure the capacity of power plants.
• Long Period Average (LPA): The average rainfall recorded over a specific region for a long period, typically 50 years, used as a benchmark for monsoon forecasts.