Orbital rivalry — the challenge of China’s space power, Pg6

Key Highlights:

• China is rapidly developing counter-space capabilities, including anti-satellite missiles and co-orbital systems, raising concerns about potential orbital warfare.
• China aims to achieve key space milestones by 2050, including lunar landing by 2036, a nuclear-powered shuttle by 2040, and a solar power system by 2050.
• China plans to deploy over 36,000 LEO satellites by 2030, intensifying competition with systems like Starlink.
• India has approximately 60 operational satellites, compared to China's 400+ military satellites, indicating a significant disparity in space assets.

Detailed Insights:

• China's space program aims to be competitive in the space race and recognizes the military and economic implications of space weaponization.
• China's counter-space capabilities include kinetic attack systems, laser-based systems, and co-orbital satellites, potentially crippling ISR, GPS, and communication networks.
• In a conflict scenario, China might initially target ISR and communication networks to shape the narrative before resorting to hard-kill attacks.
• India needs to expand its space industry, disaggregate satellite programs into smaller constellations, protect ground assets, and enhance data-sharing with strategic partners.
• Mission Shakti has strengthened India’s deterrence posture, but India still lacks co-orbital capabilities to counter Chinese satellites.
• China's peacetime harassment tactics could include lasers and jammers, while severe damage would risk Kessler Syndrome.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Counter-space capabilities: Technologies and strategies designed to neutralize or degrade an adversary's space-based assets.
• Low-Earth Orbit (LEO): An orbit around Earth with an altitude of approximately 2,000 km or less.
• Kessler Syndrome: A scenario where the density of objects in low Earth orbit is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade effect.
• Mission Shakti: India's first anti-satellite missile test, conducted in 2019.