Thinking beyond population count, Pg 9

• Upcoming end to the constitutional freeze on Lok Sabha seat count (since 1976) raises concerns over regional political imbalance.

• Peninsular States, despite better demographic performance, may face under-representation due to lower population growth.

• Northern States (e.g., UP, Bihar, MP) could gain more seats under the current population-based formula.

Historical Context

• In 1951, each Lok Sabha MP represented 7.3 lakh people; by 2026, the number is expected to cross 20 lakh.

• Current seat freeze limits Lok Sabha to 543 seats, based on 1971 population.

15th Finance Commission Intervention

• Commission increased the weight of population performance (from 0.15 to 0.27) in fiscal devolution to balance rewards for States with lower population growth.

• Emphasized demographic performance along with population size for allocation decisions.

Flaws in Population-Only Approach

• Per capita measurements fail to reflect temporal or structural demographic variations.

• Suggested alternatives:

  • Use population density or demographic composition (age, gender, needs) instead of just size.

  • Consider average representation caps to prevent over-representation of high-growth States.

Analysis & Way Forward

• Sole reliance on population for representation and devolution undermines equity and federal balance.

• A demographic outlook incorporating performance, density, and needs-based indicators should be the basis of future delimitation and fiscal sharing.

Mains Mock Question:

"Critically examine the challenges posed by population-based delimitation and fiscal devolution in India. Suggest alternatives to ensure equitable political representation and fiscal balance."