India's Fertility Decline Story Is Not Yet A Crisis. It Is A Policy Story, Pg14

Key Highlights:

• India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has reached approximately 2.0 children per woman, nearing replacement level.
• This demographic shift occurs despite high marriage rates and early age at first birth, distinguishing India from other low-fertility nations.
• A notable gap exists between the actual TFR (2.0) and the desired family size, or wanted fertility rate (1.6).
• The decline in fertility is primarily driven by women opting for sterilization after achieving their desired family size.
• Son preference and insufficient access to spacing methods contribute significantly to unintended pregnancies.

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Detailed Insights:

• Data from the Sample Registration System and National Family Health Survey highlight India's unique fertility decline trajectory.
• States such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Assam, and Haryana show a significant gap between actual and wanted fertility.
• The absence of effective spacing methods leads to unintended pregnancies clustering among younger married women, impacting maternal and child health outcomes.
• The issue of unmet need for family planning and partially informed choices regarding sterilization are critical policy challenges.
• Son preference often results in families continuing to have children until a male child is born, thereby inflating overall birth numbers.
• Unintended pregnancies have decreased from 21% in 2005-06 to 8% in 2019-21, indicating progress in family planning.
• A recent decline in the use of modern contraceptive methods is a concern, potentially hindering further reduction of unwanted fertility.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime.
• Replacement-level fertility: The TFR at which a population exactly replaces itself, typically around 2.1 births per woman.
• Wanted fertility rate: The number of children women state they intended or desired to have.
• Sterilization: A permanent surgical procedure for birth control in both males and females.
• Unmet need for family planning: The proportion of women who want to avoid pregnancy but are not using any method of contraception.