'Godzilla' El Niño Effects To Be Felt Next Year Too: Decoding WMO Warning For India, Pg13

Key Highlights:

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the prevailing El Niño conditions are set to peak by the end of the year, with effects extending into 2027.
• This El Niño is characterized by "off-the-charts warming," with sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean expected to break previous records.
• India's southwest monsoon, which brings 70% of annual rainfall, ended at 87% of the long period average, making it the fourth driest since 2001.
• The current El Niño is projected to cause a warmer-than-usual winter in India, with above-normal temperatures forecast for October, November, and December.
• Globally, the phenomenon is expected to lead to increased floods, droughts, extreme temperatures, and cyclones, impacting food and water security.

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Detailed Insights:

• El Niño, an abnormal warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, emerged in June this year, with its climatic effects felt in India after 40-45 days.
• The ongoing northeast monsoon is, however, expected to be normal over India’s southern peninsula.
• The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes the interaction over the Pacific, with El Niño being its warm phase, alongside neutral and La Niña (cool) phases.
• Scientists measure temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to determine the onset and strength of ENSO phases.
• The Relative Ocean Niño Index (RONI) for July-September recorded warming of 2 to 2.8 degrees Celsius, with projections reaching 3.8 degrees Celsius above normal.
• This temperature anomaly is unprecedented since ocean temperature monitoring began four decades ago, surpassing the previous high of 3 degrees Celsius.
• Regions like southern Europe, parts of Africa, the Arabian peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, and eastern Asia are likely to experience above-normal temperatures.
• The UN body handling humanitarian affairs has recommended alternative livelihood options for Central and South American populations and crop protection for African communities.

Scientific/Technical Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: Abnormal warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, influencing global weather patterns.
• El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A large-scale ocean-atmosphere interaction over the Pacific with warm (El Niño), neutral, and cool (La Niña) phases.
• Niño 3.4 region: A specific area in the equatorial Pacific Ocean used to monitor sea surface temperature anomalies for ENSO declarations.
• Relative Ocean Niño Index (RONI): A measure of temperature deviation from the normal in the Niño 3.4 region, used to declare El Niño or La Niña.