Season’s End, Pg10

Key Highlights:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported the monsoon season ended with 759 mm of rainfall, which is 87% of the normal Long Period Average (LPA) of 869 mm.
• This 87% figure classifies the monsoon as 'deficient', despite the IMD's initial forecast of 'below normal' rainfall (90% to 95% of average).
• A strong El Niño event, characterized by warming in the Central Equatorial Pacific, significantly suppressed monsoon rains.
• Northeast India experienced its driest monsoon since 1901, recording a 26% deficit, while the southern peninsula was 23% short.
• The national rainfall deficit of approximately 12% is below the Centre's 20% threshold for declaring an agricultural drought.

Monsoon Deficit.png

Detailed Insights:

• The IMD's forecast accuracy was challenged by significant monthly variations, with June receiving only 65% of its normal rainfall against a 92% forecast.
• July's rainfall was slightly above its forecast, while August and September were largely in line with predictions.
• El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen, potentially leading to below-normal rainfall across most of India from October to December, impacting soil moisture and reservoir levels.
• Climate change is contributing to more complex monsoon patterns, with Western Disturbances increasingly influencing rainfall during monsoon months in some regions.
• Kharif sowing initially lagged by 16% compared to the previous year but recovered to a deficit of under 2% by early September.
• Several states, including Karnataka (over 100 taluks) and Maharashtra (265 of 358 taluks), have declared drought conditions at the local level.
• The Union Cabinet increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for wheat by ₹25 per quintal and mustard by ₹413, aiming to encourage crop diversification.

Key Concepts Involved:

• India Meteorological Department (IMD): The primary agency responsible for weather forecasting and meteorological observations in India.
• El Niño: A climate pattern involving the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, influencing global weather.
• Long Period Average (LPA): A statistical benchmark representing the average rainfall over a specific region for a given period, typically 30 or 50 years, used by IMD for monsoon forecasts.
• Western Disturbances: Extra-tropical storm systems originating in the Mediterranean region that bring sudden winter rain and snow to the northwestern parts of the Indian subcontinent.
• Kharif Sowing: The cultivation period for crops sown at the beginning of the southwest monsoon season (June-July) and harvested in autumn (September-October).
• Agricultural Drought: A condition characterized by insufficient rainfall and soil moisture to support healthy crop growth, leading to significant agricultural losses.
• Minimum Support Price (MSP): A guaranteed price set by the Government of India for certain agricultural crops to protect farmers from market price fluctuations and ensure a minimum profit.