India likely to receive below-normal rainfall this month, says IMD, Pg10

Key Highlights:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts below-normal rainfall for India during August, expected to be less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
• The second half of the southwest monsoon season (August–September) is also projected to receive below-normal rainfall.
• Moderate El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific are anticipated to strengthen, potentially impacting monsoon rainfall.
• Despite earlier forecasts of subdued rainfall, July recorded near-normal precipitation at 101% of the usual amount, helping to erase much of June's deficit.
• Maximum temperatures across most of the country are expected to remain above normal in August.

Detailed Insights:

• Regional variations are expected, with some parts of peninsular, central, eastern, and northeastern India, and northern parts of the northwest potentially receiving normal to above-normal rainfall in August.
• The southwest monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture, water availability, and overall economy, contributing 70-75% of the country's annual rainfall.
• El Niño typically weakens the southwest monsoon, leading to below-normal rainfall, increased drought risk, and higher temperatures in India.
• Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to persist before a positive IOD develops in September, which can potentially support monsoon rainfall and sometimes offset the negative impact of El Niño.
• Uneven distribution of rainfall across regions was observed in July, despite the overall near-normal figures.
• A weak or delayed monsoon can significantly affect kharif crop sowing, food supply, inflation, and rural incomes.

Key Concepts Involved:

• India Meteorological Department (IMD): The primary government agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting, and seismology in India.
• Long Period Average (LPA): A statistical baseline of rainfall recorded over a fixed multi-decade reference period, used by the IMD to measure and forecast monsoon performance.
• Southwest Monsoon: India's main rainy season from June to September, bringing 70-75% of the country's annual rainfall and vital for agriculture and water resources.
• El Niño: A climate pattern characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, often associated with weaker Indian monsoons.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A climate phenomenon involving the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean, which can influence monsoon rainfall in India.