Setting up an early warning system for the Himalayas poses unique challenges, PgII

Key Highlights:

• Recent extreme weather events in the Himalayas, including blizzards and heavy snowfall, have caused significant disruptions and casualties in regions like Mount Everest, Nepal, and Darjeeling.
• A 2024 Down To Earth (DTE) report indicates a sharp increase in disasters in the Himalayas, with 68 occurring between 2013-2022, accounting for 44% of all disasters reported in India since 1900.
• The Himalayas are warming at a faster rate than the global average, between 0.15º to 0.60º C per decade, increasing the unpredictability and frequency of disasters.
• Experts emphasize the urgent need for more early warning systems (EWS) across the Himalayan arc to mitigate the impact of earthquakes, landslides, snowstorms, and floods.

Detailed Insights:

• The increasing frequency of disasters in the Himalayas is attributed to climate change, making the seismically vulnerable region more unpredictable.
• Developing effective EWS in the Himalayas faces challenges such as the region's rugged terrain, remote locations, and the need for weather-proof, low-cost systems that can be operated by local communities.
• Artificial intelligence (AI) and satellite technology offer potential solutions for transforming live data into credible warnings, but satellite links can be expensive and may not be scalable.
• Successful disaster prevention examples, such as the Blatten village incident in the Swiss Alps, highlight the importance of community involvement and timely warnings.
• A 2022 study by the Chinese Academy of Sciences demonstrated the effectiveness of an EWS for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in Cirenmaco, using unmanned boats and satellite data transmission.
• Early warning systems (EWS) can prevent loss of life and reduce the economic and societal impacts of disasters by monitoring lake-level changes, end-moraine displacement, ice collapse, and downstream runoff.
• A study predicts that 90% of the Himalayas will experience drought lasting over a year if global warming increases by 3º C, impacting wildlife and ecosystems.
• Himalayan catastrophes are not being given the priority they deserve and that it should be a national priority.

Scientific/Technical Concepts Involved:

• Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF): A sudden release of water from a glacial lake, often caused by the failure of a moraine dam.
• Artificial Intelligence (AI): The simulation of human intelligence processes by computer systems, often used for data analysis and prediction.
• Early Warning System (EWS): A set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.