Analysing India’s cycle of deprivation and affluence, Pg10

Key Highlights:

• Income mobility analysis in India (2014-2025) reveals a rise in downward mobility, with 26.8% of households worse off in 2025 compared to 14% in 2015.
• Rural households experienced a sharper deterioration, with nearly 29% worse off in 2025.
• Downward mobility increased across all caste groups, particularly among OBC and SC households.
• Muslim households experienced restricted upward mobility due to discrimination.
• Higher income dispersion at the district level is associated with greater downward mobility.

Detailed Insights:

• The period between 2014 and 2025 is divided into two sub-periods, 2014-19 and 2019-24, each anchored around a national election year, to assess whether elections mattered.
• While upward mobility increased from 14.1% to 23.5%, it consistently trailed the rise in downward movement, indicating growing vulnerability and uneven gains.
• Urban India fared better than rural areas, but gains were concentrated in urban centers, highlighting a widening experience of insecurity.
• Scheduled Tribes displayed comparatively lower downward mobility and some episodes of stronger upward movement, possibly reflecting targeted interventions and regional development efforts.
• Households from historically disadvantaged caste groups and Muslims exhibit significantly lower mobility, while education, urban location and larger household size are associated with better prospects.
• The COVID-19 pandemic caused massive humanitarian and economic crises, and the government's handling of it led to persistent disruption.
• Reckless pursuit of Hindutva without a coherent strategy to revive the informal sector including agriculture, lower increase in upward income mobility.
• Policy must move beyond headline growth and focus on strengthening public health, education, employment-intensive sectors, and social protection.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Income Mobility: The movement of individuals or households between different income groups over time.
• Downward Mobility: A decline in an individual's or household's income level or socioeconomic status.
• Hindutva: An ideology seeking to define Indian culture in terms of Hindu values.