India views China as ‘primary adversary’ and Pakistan more as ‘ancillary’ security problem, says U.S. report, Pg13

Key Highlights:

• China seen as India’s “primary adversary”; Pakistan termed an “ancillary” threat by the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) in its Worldwide Threat Assessment 2025 report.

• India's defence priorities are likely to focus on countering China, demonstrating global leadership, and modernising military capabilities.

• India continues strategic bilateral engagement in the Indian Ocean, increased trilateral partnerships, and participation in Quad, BRICS, SCO, and ASEAN forums.

• India's military modernisation in 2024 included testing of Agni-1 Prime MRBM, MIRV-capable Agni-V, and commissioning of its second nuclear-powered submarine.

• India-China disengagement in Depsang and Demchok (Oct 2024) has not resolved the core border demarcation disputes.

Detailed Insights:

• China as Strategic Threat:

  • India’s response to Chinese actions is described as assertive, involving moves like Operation Sindoor, deeper military partnerships, and capacity building in the Indian Ocean Region.

    • The report suggests India is seeking to offset China's influence by engaging multilaterally and enhancing defence tech autonomy.

  • Pakistan as a Managed Threat:

    • Pakistan’s capability for WMD acquisition and military modernisation continues, but is seen as a manageable challenge rather than an existential threat.

      • Refers to Pahalgam terror attack and subsequent Indian response (e.g., Sindoor operations) as recent evidence of controlled escalation.

  • India-Russia Relations:

    • India to maintain strategic ties with Russia for spare parts, energy, and defence cooperation, despite reduced new procurements.

      • Seen as a balancing act amid Russia-China closeness.

  • Strategic Modernisation:

    • India prioritises indigenous defence production (Make in India) and tests advanced nuclear delivery systems.

      • Focus on bolstering deterrence capability via land and undersea assets.

  • Geopolitical Alignment:

    • India’s growing cooperation with Quad countries and Indian Ocean partners highlights its Indo-Pacific centrality.

      • The report notes India’s role in arms training, joint exercises, and intelligence sharing to counter Chinese expansion.

Scientific/Technical Concepts Involved:

• MIRV (Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles): A missile payload allowing targeting of multiple locations with a single launch.

• Ballistic Missile Tests (Agni-1 Prime, Agni-V): Essential for credible minimum deterrence posture.

• Depsang & Demchok: Disputed regions along the LAC; symbolic of enduring Sino-Indian tensions.

Significance:

• The report reflects a shift in India’s threat prioritisation, confirming strategic realignment with a China-first security doctrine.

• Emphasises India’s evolving role as a balancer in Asia, combining military modernisation, regional partnerships, and diplomatic assertiveness.

• Validates India’s defence posture restructuring in line with global threat perception reports.

Mains Mock Question:

Q. Analyse how India’s evolving threat perception towards China and Pakistan is shaping its strategic doctrine and foreign policy. What are the implications of such assessments by global intelligence agencies for India’s security preparedness?