A slow revival, Pg 8.

Key Highlights:

• India has resumed tourist visas for Chinese nationals after a four-year pause.
• This follows multiple high-level meetings, including three rounds of the WMCC and Modi-Xi talks.
• China recently reopened the Kailash Manasarovar Yatra, and both sides are exploring resumption of direct flights and media visas.
• Discussions include bilateral trade, Indian restrictions on Chinese investments, and Chinese export curbs on critical materials.
• Talks are ongoing regarding the Chinese mega-dam project on the Brahmaputra.
• Preparations are underway for PM Modi’s visit to the SCO Summit in August.

Detailed Insights:

• Diplomatic Normalization Without Full Border Resolution:
  • Despite ongoing military tensions, both countries are progressing in non-border diplomatic domains such as tourism, trade, and people-to-people ties.
  • However, this shift raises concerns about normalizing relations without full de-escalation and restoration of pre-2020 border status.
• Economic Interdependence and Strategic Tensions:
  • India’s tech and auto sectors are impacted by Chinese export restrictions (fertilizers, minerals), prompting economic discussions.
  • Simultaneously, India maintains investment restrictions on Chinese firms post-2020.
• Security and Trust Deficit:
  • There is lack of transparency regarding China's border assurances post-Galwan.
  • The PLA’s collaboration with Pakistan and its actions under Operation Sindoor continue to undermine bilateral trust.
  • Revival of mechanisms like WMCC and SR-level talks may help, but substantive trust-building remains absent.
• Strategic Calculus:
  • India appears to be balancing diplomacy with realism, engaging in multilateral platforms like the SCO while remaining cautious about China's intent.

Concepts Involved:

• WMCC (Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination): A diplomatic platform for managing India-China border affairs, established in 2012.
• Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra): A transboundary river critical for northeast India; China's dam projects raise hydro-political and environmental concerns.