Sustaining India’s low-fertility future, Pg9

Key Highlights:

• India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9 children per woman, falling below the global average of 2.2 and the replacement level of 2.1.
• This fertility decline is geographically uneven, with urban TFR at 1.5 and rural TFR closer to the replacement level.
• States like Delhi (1.2), Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal (1.3 each) exhibit very low TFRs, while Bihar (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.4), and Rajasthan (2.3) have higher rates.
• The elderly population (aged 60 and above) in India, currently around 150 million, is projected to reach 347 million by 2050, comprising nearly one-fifth of the total population.

Detailed Insights:

• India is entering a low-fertility phase with a less developed institutional and fiscal foundation compared to Western nations that experienced aging post-industrialization.
• The country's per-capita income is approximately $2,800, and its direct tax base is narrow, with only about 6% of the population being net direct taxpayers.
• State governments, which bear significant responsibility for social sector initiatives, are already facing fiscal constraints.
• Old-age income security is precarious due to a predominantly informal or semi-formal labor market, making sustained contributions to pension systems challenging for many.
• Schemes like the Atal Pension Yojana assume consistent contributions, which is often difficult for informal workers with fluctuating incomes.
• The old-age pension under the National Social Assistance Programme offers only ₹200 per month for those aged 60-79 and ₹500 for those above 80, providing inadequate income security.
• Traditional family support structures for the elderly are diminishing due to urbanization, migration, and the rise of nuclear households.
• A NITI Aayog report indicates that 70% of the elderly are dependent on others, and 78% lack pension coverage, underscoring the need for an inflation-indexed minimum pension floor.
• Population aging will intensify the demand for long-term healthcare services for chronic conditions, necessitating focused efforts on geriatric care integration into health planning.
• The demographic transition has a federal dimension, requiring younger states to invest in education and skills, and older states to ensure portable welfare benefits for migrant workers.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years.
• Replacement Level Fertility: The TFR at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, typically around 2.1.
• Ageing Population: A demographic phenomenon characterized by an increasing proportion of older individuals within a population.
• Portability of Welfare Benefits: The ability for social security and welfare entitlements to be transferred and accessed across different administrative regions or states.