In dry monsoon, a test of resilience, Pg9

Key Highlights:

• June monsoon rainfall deficit exceeded 40%, despite the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting 92% of normal for the month.
• The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was identified as a primary reason for the dry June, being in an unfavorable phase for India.
• El Niño has emerged but its full impact on the Indian monsoon is expected with a lag, becoming stronger later in the season.
• Monsoon activity picked up recently, but around 75% of India's land area still faces over 20% rainfall deficiency.
• India's resilience to a dry monsoon has improved due to efforts in water conservation and increased renewable energy capacity.

Dry monsoon.png

Detailed Insights:

• The IMD had predicted 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) for the entire monsoon season.
• Weak low-pressure systems and monsoon currents also contributed to the significant rainfall deficit in June.
• The MJO is a moving system of winds and clouds that influences weather globally over short terms, distinct from El Niño which operates in the Pacific.
• The favorable part of the MJO is expected to be over the Indian region by early July, potentially bringing good rainfall.
• A poor monsoon can severely impact agricultural productivity, food security, hydropower generation, and overall economic growth.
• Measures like rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge, and increased solar/wind power capacity have reduced India's monsoon dependence.
• Major reservoirs currently maintain good storage levels due to abundant rainfall in the preceding two years.
• Timely forecasts allowed farmers to sow Kharif crops during pre-monsoon showers, mitigating some immediate risks.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: A climate pattern describing unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO): An eastward-moving pulse of clouds and rainfall that propagates around the global tropics on a 30-60 day cycle.
• Long Period Average (LPA): The average rainfall recorded over a specific region during a particular period, typically 50 years.
• Kharif Crops: Crops sown during the monsoon season (June-July) and harvested in autumn (September-October), like rice, maize, and cotton.