Did SIR process decide the Bihar result? Data says ‘no’, Pg9

Key Highlights:

• In Bihar's 2025 Assembly election, the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls became a contentious issue.
• Approximately 68 lakh electors were deleted and 24 lakh added, resulting in a net deletion of around 44 lakh voters between January and October 2025.
• Data analysis suggests the SIR process did not decisively influence the NDA's victory.
• The NDA secured 46.6% of the vote share, a marginal drop from the 2024 general election.

Detailed Insights:

• The SIR process was controversial, with the BJP supporting it to remove "infiltrators" and the opposition alleging it was "vote theft" in collusion with the Election Commission of India.
• Despite concerns, data indicates no significant correlation between the extent of electoral roll deletions and changes in the NDA's vote share advantage.
• The correlation coefficient between electorate decrease and vote share change was only 0.192, indicating a very weak positive relationship.
• The R² value of 0.037 suggests that only 3.7% of the variation in the NDA’s electoral performance can be explained by changes in the electoral roll.
• Data revealed a disproportionate decrease in the number of women in the electorate following the SIR, but women still turned out in larger numbers than men.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Special Intensive Revision (SIR): A process of revising electoral rolls to remove ineligible voters and update voter information.
• Vote Share: The percentage of total votes received by a political party or alliance in an election.
• Correlation Coefficient: A statistical measure that calculates the strength of the relationship between two variables.