Pakistan’s Role in the U.S.-West Asia Calculus, Pg8

Key Highlights:

• Pakistan’s Army Chief  held a private meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on June 18 — a rare move signalling strategic discussions amid the U.S.-Iran escalation.
• U.S. CENTCOM Chief praised Pakistan’s counter-terror role, particularly in the arrest of an ISIS-K operative linked to the 2021 Kabul airport bombing.
• Pakistan shut its border with Iran (except for repatriations), just before the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, indicating alignment with U.S. objectives.
• Defence spending in Pakistan’s 2025–26 budget rose 17% to ₹3.29 trillion, while development outlay fell 50%, reflecting security-first governance amid economic stress.
• Pakistan’s economic survival depends on external bailouts: $1.4 billion under IMF’s climate resilience program, and a $1 billion tranche from an earlier package.
• Pakistan's military supports Sunni extremist groups to counter Baloch nationalism, which worsens sectarian ties with Iran and raises internal security risks.
• Iran is dependent on food imports, and conflict-driven port closures would make Pakistan’s land routes strategically vital for both Iran and the U.S.
• The recent closure of trading posts along the Iran-Pakistan border hampers energy trade (like Iranian electricity to Gwadar), straining bilateral ties.
• Ideological rigidity, such as General Munir’s  speech asserting “superior ideology” and invoking Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein,” reflects deep militarised nationalism.

Detailed Insights:

• Pakistan’s geography makes it a potential logistical partner for the U.S. if tensions with Iran escalate and Gulf maritime routes are blocked.
• Despite sabotaging U.S. efforts in Afghanistan, Pakistan is now seen as a counter-Iranian partner due to shifting American priorities in West Asia.
• The timing of IMF disbursements and the border closure with Iran suggests pre-negotiated cooperation between Washington and Islamabad.
• Balochistan’s unrest complicates relations with Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province, both regions being prone to cross-border attacks and proxy skirmishes.
• Gwadar Port, built by China, remains a military installation with minimal commercial trade, while Chabahar (Iran) is a potential rival port supported by India..
• Debt servicing (₹8.2 trillion) and defence (₹3.29 trillion) together exceed Pakistan’s total federal revenue (₹11.07 trillion), highlighting fiscal unsustainability.
• Religious nationalism, driven by the military-bureaucratic elite, increasingly dictates foreign policy, overriding pragmatic diplomacy.
• The growing U.S.-Pakistan understanding may be short-term tactic, but it risks backlash from domestic Islamist constituencies that sympathise with Iran.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Strategic Encirclement: A geopolitical tactic to surround a rival (here, Iran) through allies and bases to limit its regional influence.
• Proxy Warfare: The use of non-state actors (like Sunni extremist groups) to influence outcomes indirectly without direct confrontation.
• Debt Diplomacy: Pakistan’s foreign policy flexibility is constrained by its reliance on IMF and Gulf bailouts, making it vulnerable to external strategic pressures.