What would it take to stop South Korea’s population decline?, Pg7

Key Highlights:

• The United Nations projects South Korea's population to decline substantially, potentially halving to 22 million by 2100 from an estimated 52 million in 2026.
• South Korea's fertility rate has dramatically fallen from six children per woman in 1960 to just 0.75 children currently.
• The country's net migration rate is approximately 1.3 people per 1,000 residents annually, which is among the lowest globally.
• Maintaining a constant population would require a significant increase in the fertility rate to 2.1 children per woman by 2050, a 50-year increase in life expectancy to 130 years, or a seven-fold rise in the net migration rate to nine immigrants per 1,000 people.

Detailed Insights:

• The United Nations projections are based on assumptions regarding births, deaths, and migration trends.
• A reversal to a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman by 2050 is deemed necessary to stabilize the population near current levels.
• Achieving a life expectancy of 130 years by 2050 would require an unprecedented acceleration in health improvements, far exceeding historical rates.
• The current net migration rate is significantly lower than the nine immigrants per 1,000 people needed to offset population decline.
• Increasing the fertility rate to around 2.3 within a few decades is considered the most realistic scenario, despite the challenge of reversing a long-term global decline.
• South Korea's demographic challenges are driven by persistently low birth rates, impacting its future age structure and workforce.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Fertility Rate: The average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years.
• Life Expectancy: The average number of years a person is expected to live, based on current mortality rates.
• Net Migration Rate: The difference between the number of people entering (immigrants) and leaving (emigrants) a country per 1,000 residents annually.