As El Niño looms, guard against food inflation, Pg10

Key Highlights:

• India's Southwest Monsoon rainfall recorded a cumulative deficit of 42.8% below normal until June 22 of the current season.
• Global climate agencies forecast the current El Niño to intensify into a "strong" or "very strong" event by August-September and October-January.
• This deficit, coupled with the intensifying El Niño, raises concerns about potential food inflation, impacting both kharif and rabi crops.
• The government is urged to implement proactive measures, including keeping import windows open and protecting farmers through expedited crop surveys and insurance payments.

Detailed Insights:

• The Southwest Monsoon arrived three days late over Kerala on June 4, and its initial progress weakened, with no active Madden-Julian Oscillation system supporting cloud and moisture.
• The monsoon made no significant progress between June 15 and June 21, before showing signs of revival.
• Historically, the last two strong-to-very strong El Niño events in 2023-24 and 2015-16 coincided with drought years.
• Despite recent global food price stability due to bumper harvests in 2024-25 and 2025-26, the impending El Niño could alter this trend.
• El Niño is known to raise temperatures, which could severely affect rabi (winter-spring) crops if it peaks through October-January.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: A climatic phenomenon characterized by the abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, often leading to reduced rainfall and drought conditions in India.
• Southwest Monsoon: India's primary rainy season from June to September, responsible for 70-75% of the country's annual rainfall and crucial for agriculture.
• Kharif crops: Monsoon crops sown at the onset of the Southwest Monsoon (June-July) and harvested in September-October, heavily dependent on rainfall.
• Rabi crops: Winter crops sown between October and December after the monsoon and harvested in March-April, requiring cooler temperatures and often relying on irrigation.
• Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): An eastward-moving atmospheric disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that influences tropical weather patterns, including the Indian Monsoon.