Turning tides, Pg6

Key Highlights:

• In August 2021, the Taliban's recapture of Kabul was initially viewed by Pakistan as a tactical victory.
• The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan emboldened the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), leading to increased militant attacks in Pakistan.
• In 2025, at least 2,414 people have been killed in militancy-related violence in Pakistan.
• On October 9, 2025, Pakistan conducted air strikes in Kabul, targeting the TTP, during a visit by the Taliban Foreign Minister to India.
• A fragile ceasefire, brokered by Qatar, took effect after a week of cross-border attacks.

Detailed Insights:

• Pakistan's support for the Afghan Taliban during their insurgency was based on the expectation of future loyalty, which shifted to state-to-state ties after the Taliban takeover.
• The TTP seeks to enforce a strict Islamic code and opposes the merger of Pakistan's tribal areas with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, drawing inspiration from the Afghan Taliban's success.
• The Durand Line, a colonial-era border, has resurfaced as a point of contention, as Kabul has never recognized it, further straining relations.
• Pakistan's decision to deport thousands of Afghan refugees and India's diplomatic engagement with the Taliban have further strained relations.
• Pakistan's air strikes on Kabul set a precedent of holding Kabul accountable for cross-border militant attacks, similar to India's counter-terrorism doctrine.
• Pakistan's long-standing policy of supporting militant groups while fighting terrorism has backfired, leading to a security crisis in its tribal areas.
• Bombing Afghanistan is not a solution for restoring internal security in Pakistan, as it will likely deepen instability and strengthen insurgency.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP): An organizationally distinct group from the Afghan Taliban that is ideologically aligned with them and operates in Pakistan.
• Durand Line: The colonial-era border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which Kabul has never recognized.
• Strategic Depth: A foreign policy concept where a country tries to extend its influence beyond its borders to gain a strategic advantage.