Warming likely to make cyclones more destructive than ever before, Pg18

A new study by ETH Zurich and the Institute for Environmental Studies, Netherlands warns that tropical cyclones will become more intense and occur in new regions due to global warming under climate scenario SSP5-8.5.

• Cyclone belts could shift poleward, affecting areas unprepared for such threats.
• Southeast Asia’s mangroves are particularly vulnerable: up to 97% may be at risk under high-emission scenario SSP3-7.0.
• Global warming could expose ecosystems and communities to unfamiliar hazards with long-term environmental, economic, and health consequences.

Understanding SSPs:

• SSP5-8.5: High emissions, fossil fuel-dependent pathway with extreme warming (~8.5 W/m² radiative forcing).
• SSP3-7.0: Politically fragmented world, rapid deforestation, moderate-to-high emissions (~7.0 W/m²).
• These models help project how ecosystems might respond to temperature rise, rainfall variability, and storm surges.

Cyclone Risk Analysis:

• Models used historical cyclone data (1980–2017) and future simulations (2050–2100).
• Risks were categorized into:
  1. Hazard-prone (more intense, exposed zones)
  2. Vulnerable (limited recovery capacity)
  3. Exposed (frequent cyclone impact)
• Researchers also analysed storm surge impacts, wind speeds (33–70 m/s+), and rainfall intensity to evaluate regional exposure.

Mangrove Vulnerability:

• Mangroves buffer coasts from cyclones, prevent erosion, and store carbon.
• Under SSP5-8.5, up to 56% of mangroves may face high to severe cyclone risk by 2100.
• Under SSP3-7.0, 97.8% of mangroves in Southeast Asia could become highly threatened.

Ecosystem & Socioeconomic Impact:

• Shift in cyclone zones may bring storms to higher latitudes, affecting unprepared communities.
• Damage to coral reefs, deltas, urban coasts, and food systems will be significant.
• Disaster preparedness, insurance, zoning regulations, and ecosystem-based adaptation will be critical.

Key Concepts:

• Climate Adaptation Modelling (CLIMADA): Predicts impacts of extreme weather events under various warming pathways.
• Mangroves as Climate Shields: Vital blue-carbon ecosystems with the ability to mitigate both climate and disaster risks.

Significance:

• Highlights the urgency of climate action and resilient infrastructure planning, especially in tropical Asia.
• Warns that warming isn't just about higher temperatures but about unpredictable risk redistribution.
• Calls for integrated risk models to be incorporated in urban, coastal, and developmental planning.

Mains Mock Question:

Discuss the implications of shifting cyclone zones due to global warming. How should India prepare to adapt ecologically and institutionally to such changing risks?