US sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil loom, Russian oil loading for Indian ports halves, Pg15

Key Highlights:

• US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on November 21, 2025, impacting Russian oil trade.
• Russian oil deliveries to Indian ports reached a five-month high in November 1-20, 2025, averaging 1.89 million bpd.
• Russian oil loadings for Indian ports decreased by 50% in November 1-20, 2025, falling to 0.98 million bpd.
• The sanctions are intended to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.

Detailed Insights:

• The US imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil on October 22, 2025, with a wind-down period until November 21, 2025.
• The decline in oil loadings for India is attributed to reduced dispatches from Rosneft and Lukoil, which previously constituted over two-thirds of India's Russian oil imports.
• Indian refiners are likely to avoid US-sanctioned oil cargoes due to the threat of secondary sanctions, despite political opposition to unilateral economic sanctions.
• Historically, India has avoided oil imports from countries like Iran and Venezuela when their oil sectors faced US sanctions.
• Potential secondary sanctions could significantly impact Indian refiners and banks due to their exposure to the US financial system and dollar-denominated trade.
• HPCL-Mittal Energy has already suspended Russian oil imports, and Indian Oil Corporation has stated it will comply with international sanctions.
• The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) administers and enforces these sanctions.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Primary Sanctions: Restrictions on engagement of American citizens/entities with sanctioned entities.
• Secondary Sanctions: Measures to limit other countries' engagement with a sanctioned entity.
• OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control): US Treasury Department division administering economic sanctions.