Imapct of EL NINO, Pg23

Key Highlights:

• India is currently experiencing the effects of a developing El Niño weather pattern.
• This pattern is anticipated to negatively impact agricultural output and potentially increase food inflation.
• CareEdge projects an 84% probability of sub-normal rainfall conditions across India.
• Since 1951-52, 25 El Niño episodes have occurred, with most correlating to below-average rainfall.

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Detailed Insights:

• El Niño is characterized by the unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• This phenomenon often weakens the Southwest Monsoon winds, leading to reduced rainfall and increased drought risk in India.
• Deficient monsoon rainfall primarily affects kharif crops like rice, maize, and pulses, which are sown at the onset of the monsoon.
• Reduced agricultural production can lead to supply shortages, driving up food prices and contributing to inflation.
• The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) monitors these climatic patterns and issues forecasts for the monsoon season.
• India's preparedness for El Niño years has improved due to better reservoir levels and robust foodgrain buffer stocks.

Scientific/Technical Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: A climate pattern marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Southwest Monsoon: The primary rainy season in India (June-September), vital for agriculture.
• Long Period Average (LPA): A 50-year average of rainfall used as a benchmark for monsoon performance.
• Kharif Crops: Monsoon crops sown at the beginning of the Southwest Monsoon (June-July) and harvested in September-October.