Operation Sindoor — a doubtful deterrent, Pg6

Key Highlights:

• Operation Sindoor launched post-Pahalgam terror attack aims to establish a “new normal” against terrorism.
• Government claims past surgical strikes (2016, 2019) and Operation Sindoor aim to deter future attacks.
• However, no concrete evidence has yet been found to link identified terrorists to the Pahalgam incident.
• Article critiques the policy of military retaliation as a deterrent, calling for a cost-benefit analysis and long-term strategic review.

Detailed Insights:

• The NIA has not conclusively identified or prosecuted those behind the Pahalgam attack, raising concerns over operational success and justice for victims.
• India’s retaliatory strikes killed known militants, but none were linked directly to Pahalgam.
• Military hardware suppliers like the U.S., France, Russia, and Israel benefit from India’s increased defense spending, complicating autonomy.
• Pakistan’s terrorist infrastructure, operating with military backing, has proven resilient despite strikes.
• Author argues that strategic isolation, diplomacy, and targeted prosecution (as done post-26/11) are more effective than escalation alone.

Key Concepts:

• Strategic Restraint vs Retaliation: The dilemma between immediate kinetic responses and long-term strategic containment.
• Nuclear Blackmail: Reference to mutual deterrence due to nuclear capabilities between India and Pakistan post-1998.
• Cost-Benefit Analysis in Military Operations: Evaluating military action not just on success metrics but also civilian costs and political fallout.
• Made in India Weapon Systems: Push for indigenous defense capability as a deterrence tool.

Significance:

• Highlights the limits of deterrence when not backed by legal accountability and intelligence success.
• Reiterates that military strikes must be part of a broader doctrine involving justice delivery, public trust, and international diplomacy.
• Calls for transparent assessment of anti-terror policies in a democracy, balancing national security with constitutional accountability.

Mains Mock Question:

Discuss the effectiveness of surgical strikes and military retaliation as a deterrent against cross-border terrorism. Evaluate with reference to India’s counter-terror operations post-2016.