India’s future demographic challenges, Pg7

Key Highlights:

• India's population is projected to reach 1,590.1 million in 2051, with an average annual increase of 0.5%.
• The pre-primary school-going population (0-4 years) is expected to decrease from 113.5 million in 2021 to 8.6 million by 2051.
• The number of government schools decreased by approximately 90,000 between 2014-15 and 2023-24, while private schools increased by 43,000 in the same period.
• India's working-age population is projected to peak at 1,009.0 million in 2041 before declining to 998.1 million by 2051.
• The elderly population (60+) is projected to increase from 130.5 million in 2021 to 325.3 million by 2051, constituting 20.5% of the population.

Detailed Insights:

• The declining pre-primary school population may lead to the closure of 'uneconomic schools', potentially causing job losses for teachers, as seen in Kerala.
• Falling birth rates and increased affordability are driving the shift from government to private schools, influenced by social perceptions of quality.
• India's demographic dividend window is expected to close after 2041, emphasizing the need to leverage the working-age population for economic growth.
• The increasing elderly population will put pressure on healthcare and social security systems, requiring financial and infrastructural adjustments.
• Policy interventions should focus on family planning, reproductive rights, and improving the quality of education and skill development to address future challenges.
• Increasing women's participation in the workforce and developing geriatric care systems can help offset the decline in the working-age population and unlock a 'silver economy'.
• The median age in India is projected to rise from 28 years in 2021 to 40 years by 2051, indicating a transition towards an ageing population.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Demographic Dividend: The economic growth potential resulting from shifts in a population's age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population is larger than the non-working-age share of the population.
• Median Age: The age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups; half the people are younger than the median age, and half are older.
• Silver Economy: Economic activities related to products and services for older adults, catering to their specific needs and preferences.