The third nuclear age, Pg11

Key Highlights

• The world has entered a third nuclear age, marked by instability, decentralised threats, and the risk of nuclear weapons being used as tools to alter the status quo.
• Recent incidents, such as Israel’s bombing of Iran, violate international norms and challenge the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) framework.
• Unlike the Cold War's structured deterrence or the post-Cold War optimism, the current era is fragmented, unpredictable, and multipolar.
• Countries like China, Russia, Britain, France, and even India and Pakistan are increasingly factoring nuclear weapons into conventional conflicts.
• The risk is no longer just accidental nuclear war but deliberate nuclear coercion to achieve political or military objectives.

Phases of Nuclear History

1. First Nuclear Age (Cold War):

• Bipolar world with U.S. and USSR holding thousands of warheads on hair-trigger alert.
• Mutual assured destruction (MAD) ensured deterrence.
• Resulted in arms control regimes: NPT (1968), SALT, START.
• The New START Treaty (2010) limits warheads to 1,550 per country; it expires in 2026 with no successor in sight.

2. Second Nuclear Age (Post-Cold War to 2010s):

• Optimism around Global Zero, test ban talks, and reduced nuclear salience.
• Nuclear modernisation began during this period despite disarmament rhetoric.
• NPT extension and lack of Article 6 compliance (on disarmament) led to status quo of accepted nuclear possession.
• New nuclear entrants like India, Pakistan tested weapons but remained outside the NPT.
• The 2017 Nuclear Ban Treaty was not supported by any nuclear power.

3. Third Nuclear Age (Mid-2010s onward):

• Triggered by China’s nuclear build-up, worsening Russia-West relations, and rising global power shifts.
• Russia's nuclear threats over Ukraine, Putin's tactical nukes in Belarus, and Israel-Iran conflict are key events.
• France and UK rearming and reconsidering nuclear basing strategies.
• India-Pakistan tensions seen as having nuclear overtones, especially during 2019 Balakot skirmishes.

Nature of the Current Nuclear Age

• Messy and multipolar: Unlike Cold War predictability, this age features more actors, asymmetric threats, and less trust in deterrence.
• Nuclear deterrence is increasingly being used to coerce, not just to deter (e.g., Russia in Ukraine).
• The U.S.’s shifting global posture, especially under Trump, has led Europe to seek independent deterrents (UK, France).
• Global disarmament momentum has stalled: modernisation continues despite earlier disarmament promises.
• Real fear of nuclear use: Not due to accidents alone, but deliberate calculations by authoritarian regimes.

Scientific/Technical Concepts Involved

• Nuclear Deterrence Theory: Strategy where the threat of using nuclear weapons prevents adversary action.
• Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD): Cold War-era concept where both sides had enough nuclear capability to destroy each other, ensuring no first use.
• Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Smaller yield, battlefield-use nuclear devices; increase chances of escalation.
• Arms Control Treaties: Include NPT, CTBT (not ratified by all), START series — now weakening or expiring.
• Nuclear Modernisation: Upgrading delivery systems, warheads, and command-control systems; USA, Russia, China actively engaged.

Mains Practice Question

The third nuclear age is marked not by proliferation, but by the normalisation of nuclear coercion. Critically examine this in the context of current international security dynamics.