Monsoon anticipation, Pg8

Key Highlights

1. Forecast of 'Above Normal' Rainfall

• IMD predicts 5% more than the historical average of 87 cm rainfall from June to September.

• If realised, it will mark the second consecutive year of above-normal monsoon (last year saw +8%).

2. Agricultural Implications

• Positive for kharif sowing and stockpiling grain for exports.

• Government also committing to minimum support price procurement of pulses to cut import bills.

• Good rainfall crucial for pulses, a labour-intensive crop.

Forecasting Models & Limitations

1. Multi-Stage Forecasting

• IMD issues preliminary forecast in April, refined further by mid-May with updates on rainfall distribution.

• Despite models, forecasting precision has limits, especially for long-range monsoon behaviour.

2. Absence of El Niño

• No El Niño this year, which is historically linked to weaker monsoons.

• A warmer Equatorial Pacific with no El Niño is a good sign.

3. Eurasian Snow Cover Link

• Lower-than-average Eurasian snow cover in Jan-Mar 2025 shows an inverse correlation with summer monsoon—less snow usually means more rainfall.

Risks and Preparedness

• Historical experience shows above-normal rainfall can also lead to flooding and landslides.

• Kerala’s Wayanad disaster in 2024 killed over 200 people—an example of how extremes follow forecasts.

• Monsoon volatility compounded by climate change and cyclonic activity in Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea.

Analysis & Way Forward

• Forecasts must not lead to complacency—preparedness for extremes is key.

• Government must invest in disaster-resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and flood mitigation planning.

• States should coordinate with IMD updates and prepare contingency crop planning, especially in vulnerable zones.

Mains Mock Question:

_“Despite accurate monsoon forecasts, extreme weather events continue to cause widespread loss of lives and livelihoods in India. Discuss the limitations of forecasting systems and suggest ways to build anticipatory governance.”_