Dry days, Pg8

Key Highlights:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an 8% deficit in rainfall during the upcoming June-September monsoon season.
• This "below normal" rainfall prediction has a 5% margin of error.
• The IMD anticipates a weaker monsoon in August and September due to weather models indicating an El Nino event.
• The government is advised to prepare for potential shortages of gas and fertilizer, and ensure equitable water distribution.

Detailed Insights:

• Historical data suggests that when the IMD forecasts a monsoon deficit in April, India often experiences drought conditions.
• The IMD officially terms a deficit below 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) as "deficient."
• In 2015, the IMD predicted 93% of the LPA, but India received only 86%, indicating the potential for significant deviations from forecasts.
• The impact of El Nino on the monsoon depends on its timing; heating outside monsoon months has less impact.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole may counter the drying effects of El Nino this year.
• Potential gas and fertilizer shortages, combined with weak rains, could negatively impact farmer sentiment.
• The government should focus on fertilizer stock management, equitable water distribution, and providing timely advice to farmers.

Scientific/Technical Concepts Involved:

• El Nino: A cyclical phenomenon involving the heating of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, often associated with deficient monsoons in India.
• Long Period Average (LPA): The average rainfall over a long period (typically 30-50 years), used as a benchmark for monsoon forecasts.
• Indian Ocean Dipole: A difference in sea surface temperature between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean, which can influence the Indian monsoon.

El Nino