IMD forecasts ‘above normal’ monsoon, Pg1

1. Forecast Overview

• IMD projects “above normal” monsoon for 2025, with rainfall expected to be 5% higher than the historical average of 87 cm.
• Would mark the second consecutive year of above-normal rainfall (previous year saw 8% surplus).

2. Agricultural & Water Implications

• Could ensure sufficient water for kharif crops and enhance reservoir storage.
• However, potential intense rain episodes may lead to flooding risks.

1. Factors Driving Optimism

• Weak El Niño and warming of the central equatorial Pacific signal increased rainfall.
• Low Eurasian snow cover from Jan–Mar 2025 also correlates with higher monsoon activity (inverse relationship).

2. IMD’s Dynamical Model

• IMD uses a dynamical coupled model simulating ocean-atmosphere interactions via supercomputers.

• 5 key parameters, including Eurasian snow cover, used for April forecast. Historical data shows 33% correlation with monsoon strength.

• A strong monsoon supports food security, economic growth, and rural livelihoods.

• At the same time, climate variability poses challenges to disaster resilience and agriculture stability.

• Need for adaptive agricultural planning based on evolving forecasts.

• Investments in irrigation, early warning systems, and flood control infrastructure must complement IMD predictions.

• Enhanced use of weather models and AI can improve forecasting accuracy and preparedness.

Mains Mock Question:

“How do monsoon predictions by IMD impact India’s agriculture and disaster preparedness? Discuss the reliability of forecasting models and associated challenges.”