RE to dominate India's grid by 2070, but 'structural challenges' pose hurdles, Pg11

Key Highlights:

• NITI Aayog projects renewable energy to dominate India's electricity mix by 2070 under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS).
• Coal's share in power generation could decline from nearly 74% to 6-10% by 2070 under CPS, and potentially to zero under the Net Zero Scenario (NZS).
• India's RE capacity increased over 3x from 76.38 GW in March 2014 to 258 GW by December 2025, now accounting for 50% of total installed capacity.
• The study highlights structural challenges like intermittency and grid constraints that limit the contribution of RE to actual power generation, which was 22% in 2024-25.
• Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are projected to scale up to 1,300-1,400 GW under CPS and 2,500-3,000 GW under NZS by 2070.
• Nuclear power capacity is projected to grow from the current 8.18 GW in 2025 to 90-135 GW by 2070 under CPS, and potentially to 295-320 GW under NZS.

Detailed Insights:

• The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) assumes a continuation of existing policies, projecting renewable energy's share in power generation to rise from around 20% in 2024-25 to over 80% by 2070.
• The Net Zero Scenario (NZS) is an accelerated pathway aligned with India's 2070 net-zero emissions target, potentially eliminating coal-based generation.
• Nuclear power is expected to expand gradually, increasing its share from about 3% at present to 5-8% by 2070 under CPS, playing a growing role in providing carbon-free base-load power.
• Despite the strong growth in RE capacity, its contribution to actual power generation has remained modest due to structural challenges like lower Capacity Utilisation Factors (CUF) and intermittency.
• Pumped Storage Plants are expected to play a crucial role in providing long-duration storage and grid stability, growing from 13-19 GW in 2030 to about 110 GW in CPS and 150-165 GW in NZS.
• The study suggests scaling nuclear capacity to 100 GW by 2047 and 200-300 GW by 2070, including advanced reactors and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to deliver reliable 24x7 clean power.
• Effective grid management is crucial to address the rising share of variable renewable energy and intermittency risks, as long-duration energy storage and nuclear capacity are yet to scale sufficiently.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Capacity Utilisation Factor (CUF): The ratio of actual power generated by a plant to the maximum possible output it could generate over a period.
• Intermittency: The characteristic of some renewable energy sources, like solar and wind, that are not consistently available due to weather patterns and time of day.
• Net Zero Emission: Achieving an overall balance between emissions produced and emissions taken out of the atmosphere.