New tariffs effective August 27 are reversing India's comparative advantage in exports like leather, shrimp, textiles, and apparel.
Indian policymakers are focused on maintaining market share amidst these tariff changes.
The government is considering support measures like collateral-free loans, subsidized interest rates, and credit guarantees for exporters.
India's merchandise exports to the US could fall to $49.6 billion in FY26 from nearly $87 billion in FY25 due to tariffs.
Detailed Insights:
The Central government anticipates a reduction in secondary tariffs on Russian oil imports, but recognizes the difficulty in regaining lost market share.
Likely policy measures include reviving pandemic-era schemes to provide liquidity and credit support to exporters, especially MSMEs.
The government aims to formulate general relief measures for exporters to avoid triggering countervailing duties from the US.
The industry has requested the restoration of the Interest Equalisation Scheme (IES) to reduce the cost disadvantage for Indian exports.
Some exporters are exploring opportunities in the domestic market, engaging with retailers like Reliance Retails and the Aditya Birla Group.
Global Trade Research Initiative estimates that two-thirds of India’s US exports will face 50% tariff rates, raising effective tariffs to over 60% for some products.
The US accounts for 20% of India’s merchandise exports, with product categories like textiles, gems, and shrimp facing the most significant impact.
Key Concepts Involved:
Market Share: The percentage of a market that a specific company or product holds.
Countervailing Duty: Import duties imposed to neutralize the negative effects of subsidies.
Interest Equalisation Scheme (IES): A scheme to provide competitiveness to exports, especially to the MSMEs, since the interest costs in India are much higher than in competitors’ countries.