Why Israel Attacked Iran’s Nuclear Facilities, Pg16

Key Highlights

• Israel launched a large-scale military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile sites, and residences of top Iranian Generals on June 13, 2025, marking its most significant offensive against the country since 1979.
• The attack targeted over two dozen nuclear scientists and was seen as an attempt to neutralise Iran’s strategic deterrence before it could rebuild its capabilities.
• The U.S. under President Trump is seen as supporting the strikes to pressurize Iran into accepting a nuclear rollback deal.

Detailed Insights

• Background and build-up:
  - Israel has long viewed Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes as an “existential threat”. 
• Fall of Assad and regional shift:
  - The fall of the Assad regime in Syria (Dec 2024) dismantled Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” (Iran–Hezbollah–Syria), weakening its regional influence and supply chains to groups like Hezbollah.
• October 2024 Israeli strike:
  - In response to an Iranian missile attack, Israel disabled parts of Iran’s missile defence infrastructure, making nuclear sites like Natanz more vulnerable.
• Geopolitical vacuum and timing:
  - With regional deterrents weakened, Israel saw a historic opportunity to strike before Iran could recover militarily or diplomatically.
• Trump’s strategic calculations:
  - President Donald Trump, while initially advocating for diplomacy, ultimately used Israeli strikes as leverage. 
• Coordinated pressure campaign:
  - Israel’s attack on Natanz (a key uranium enrichment site), while sparing Fordow and Isfahan, indicates a calibrated strategy. Trump’s statement that “the next round of attacks are already planned” underscores a synchronised U.S.-Israel pressure tactic.

Iran’s strategic dilemma:

• Retaliation could trigger wider war and invite deeper Israeli or U.S. intervention.
• Conceding to U.S. demands would mean shutting down all nuclear facilities, a move that would be politically costly and domestically unpopular.
• Escalation might force U.S. military involvement but comes with extreme risks.

Mains Mock Question:
Critically analyse the geopolitical implications of Israel's preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. What does this indicate about the future of nuclear diplomacy in West Asia and its potential fallout for India’s energy and strategic interests?