Endgame of a 2,611-year-old Jewish-Persian enmity, Pg10

Key Highlights

• Israel launched Operation Rising Lion on June 13, 2025, targeting Iran’s nuclear, missile, and military infrastructure via ~200 aircraft against 100+ sites.
• Among the high-value targets assassinated were the chief of staff of the Armed Forces, the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards as well as six nuclear scientists.
• The assault followed a UN IAEA resolution condemning Iran’s nuclear non‑compliance and preceding diplomatic and military escalation.
• Israel’s assault builds on 21 months of pressure against Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
• The U.S. strategy involved sanctioning Iran, abrogating the nuclear deal, leveraging OPEC+, and supporting Israel diplomatically.
• The predominantly Sunni Arab world is cautiously monitoring, wary of oil disruptions, proxy retaliation, and Shia Sunni tensions.

Detailed Insights

• Operation Rising Lion marks an historic escalation, reviving the millennia-long Israel–Persia conflict rooted in geopolitical and religious rivalry since 586 BCE.
• The scale and precision of the strike suggest deep technology-intelligence integration, using stealth drones, precision munitions, and strategic foresight.
• The UN’s IAEA condemnation provided legal and diplomatic cover for the operation, signalling Western alignment with Israel’s threat perception.
• While Israel aimed for a decisive military blow, Iran might retaliate asymmetrically through hit‑and‑run attacks, proxy warfare, or missile strikes, prolonging instability.
• The targeting of Iran’s nuclear and military assets could galvanise Iranian nationalism, potentially strengthening internal support for its regime.
• The Sunni-led Arab states face backward-facing uncertainties around oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle Eastern security.
• A protracted conflict may strain global economies already burdened by other conflicts and trade tensions, leading to inflation surges, disruptions in energy supplies, and markets turbulence.

Key Concepts Involved

• Blitzkrieg: A military doctrine of rapid, overwhelming attacks combining airpower, mechanisation, and coordinated assaults to swiftly incapacitate the adversary.
• Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs): Advanced weapons with targeting systems (e.g., GPS, laser) to accurately hit strategic assets with minimal collateral damage.
• Proxy Warfare: Conflict through allied non-state groups or other nations, allowing deniability and extended conflict without official war declaration.
• Energy Geopolitics: Strategic interplay involving oil, gas, and pipelines, particularly concerning chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

Mains Mock Question

"Analyse the strategic and geopolitical implications of ‘Operation Rising Lion’. In the context of Israel–Iran confrontation, examine how military action against nuclear sites could impact regional security, energy markets, and global diplomacy."