Total Fertility Rate in India remains at 2.0; Bihar records highest count, Bengal lowest, Pg14

Key Highlights

• India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) remains stable at 2.0 in 2021 (same as 2020), as per the Sample Registration System (SRS) report by the Registrar General of India.

  • Bihar reported the highest TFR at 3.0, while Delhi and West Bengal reported the lowest at 1.4.

  • Share of children (0–14 years) in the total population has declined from 41.2% in 1971 to 24.8% in 2021.

  • Proportion of working-age population (15–59 years) increased from 53.4% to 66.2%, showing demographic dividend potential.

  • Elderly population (60+) has grown from 5.3% to 9% from 1971 to 2021.

  • The mean age at effective marriage for women increased from 19.3 years (1990) to 22.5 years (2021).

Detailed Insights

• Demographic transition: India is in the late stage of demographic transition with falling birth rates and rising life expectancy, implying upcoming pressure on social security and health systems for the elderly.

  • Urban-Rural Split: Rural TFR remains higher at 2.2, while urban TFR is 1.6.

  • Policy response: A high-level committee on population growth and demographic challenges was announced in the 2024 interim Budget, but it is yet to be formed.

  • Elderly concentration: Kerala (16.3%), Tamil Nadu (12.9%), and Himachal Pradesh (12.3%) have the highest proportion of population aged 60+.

  • States with lowest elderly share: Bihar (6.9%), Assam (7%), and Delhi (7.1%).

Scientific/Technical Concepts Involved

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): Average number of children a woman would have over her reproductive years.

  • Sample Registration System (SRS): A demographic survey mechanism for fertility and mortality rates estimation in India.

Significance

• A TFR of 2.1 is considered replacement-level fertility; India is now below that threshold, suggesting population stabilisation.

  • Data is crucial for planning in healthcare, pensions, social security, and labour market strategies.

  • The shift towards an ageing population necessitates a rethinking of policies like healthcare access, retirement age, and elderly care infrastructure.

Mains Mock Question:

“India’s fertility rate has achieved replacement-level fertility. Analyse its implications for India’s demographic dividend and social policy planning.”