Human contribution to global warming highest ever in 2025, says study, Pg7

Key Highlights:

• 2025 was the third warmest year on record, with human activities contributing the highest ever to global warming.
• Average global temperatures in 2025 were approximately 1.39°C higher than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline.
• Of this increase, 1.37°C was attributed to human activities, primarily greenhouse gas emissions.
• Human-induced warming is accelerating at a rate of about 0.27°C per decade.
• Global greenhouse gas emissions reached an all-time high of 56.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025.
• The remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C will be exhausted in less than three years at current emission rates.

Detailed Insights:

• The findings are from the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) study, an independent international assessment by climate scientists, including contributors to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
• The IGCC study for 2025 confirmed earlier estimates by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which had predicted 2025 to be among the warmest years.
• 2025 was a La Niña year, a natural phenomenon known for its general cooling effect, which likely prevented the year from being warmer despite record human-induced warming.
• 2024 was the warmest year on record, approximately 1.55°C hotter than the 1850-1900 baseline, with human activities contributing about 1.36°C of that warming.
• The ongoing Bonn climate talks are focused on increasing the ambition of climate action, especially following the United States' withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement.
• A WMO study indicated a 91% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will exceed the 1.5°C threshold, similar to 2024.
• A strong El Niño is predicted to develop this year and potentially continue into early next year, which typically has a global warming effect.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC): An annual scientific initiative providing updated data on climate change indicators and human influence, bridging gaps between IPCC assessments.
• Carbon Budget: The maximum amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted globally from a specific point in time to have a given chance of limiting global warming to a certain temperature target, such as 1.5°C.
• La Niña: A climate pattern characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, generally leading to a global cooling effect.
• El Niño: A climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically causing a global warming effect.
• Paris Agreement: An international treaty adopted in 2015 aiming to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels.
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): The United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change, providing comprehensive scientific assessments to policymakers.
• World Meteorological Organization (WMO): A specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for promoting international cooperation on atmospheric science, climatology, hydrology, and geophysics.