In West Asia, a realistic bargain may be in sight, Pg9

Key Highlights:

• A two-week ceasefire has been announced in West Asia following weeks of escalation involving over 15,000 US and Israeli strikes on Iran and over 5,000 Iranian attacks across Israel and the Gulf.
• Delegations are scheduled to meet in Islamabad this Friday to work towards a lasting geopolitical settlement.
• The US aims for the total removal of nuclear material from Iran, a halt on uranium enrichment, and neutralization of ballistic missile threats.
• Iran demands security guarantees, sanctions relief, recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, and a cessation of Israeli operations against Hezbollah.

Detailed Insights:

• The US seeks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without making significant concessions to Iran, while Iran views the negotiations as a political victory, emphasizing distrust towards the US.
• Iran proposes that any agreement be anchored in a binding UNSC resolution, including security guarantees and recognition of Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz with a regulated transit regime.
• A potential bargain involves Iran securing sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for diluting its enriched uranium, capping future enrichment, suspending enrichment, and resuming IAEA inspections.
• The Montreux Convention of 1936, which affirmed Turkey's sovereignty over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, could serve as a model for a "Hormuz Convention" balancing international shipping needs with Iranian security.
• The durability of any Hormuz regime would depend on robust enforcement mechanisms and credible security guarantees, with the US political calendar acting as a significant factor.
• Rising gasoline prices and inflation in the US could incentivize a deal, with the US potentially offering a phased lifting of sanctions and non-aggression guarantees in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• The GCC countries, except Oman, may have reservations about Iran's control of Hormuz, but the alignment of pragmatic needs between the US and Iran offers a chance to pull the Middle East back from the brink.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Strait of Hormuz: A narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, crucial for global oil trade.
• JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action): An agreement on the nuclear program of Iran reached in Vienna on 14 July 2015.
• IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency): An international organization that seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and to inhibit its use for any military purpose, including nuclear weapons.